Downgrading Tiago, Upgrading Cowtown Cat

[miraja2]

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

[hockey2315]

Miraja- I understand your argument and felt the same way for a while, but I don't think you can totally discredit a horse's performance because it was bias aided. I would've liked to see him come back with a higher number, but it's not like he ran a 90 Beyer in the Ill. Derby. . . He's got the breeding and running style that makes me think he's a contender at a nice price. . .

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

It might be folly for me to do it, but I'm including Cowtown Cat on all my tickets. I get all of the circumstances surrounding his last two wins and how they contributed, but I loved the way he was moving at Hawthorne and that he came home quickly (though, admittedly, he was supposed to after lulling the field to sleep with that opening half).

I just think it's possible that he's getting better at the right time and he could make some noise Saturday.

[tycharles01]

I am with you on Cowtown Cat wont have him in the Win spot but 2,3 or 4 on every ticket hopefully at a great price

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I am with you on Cowtown Cat wont have him in the Win spot but 2,3 or 4 on every ticket hopefully at a great price

I doubt he will be at a "great price." No horse that is coming off two straight wins, with a decent post position, and with a name the general public will think is "cute" will be a great price.
He is 20/1 ML, and I bet old Mike B. has this one about right. I think he'll go off at somewhere around 20/1......which is an absolutely TERRIBLE price on him. His actual chances of winning I would put at somewhere around 80/1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I just want to make one last public service announcement regarding Cowtown Cat.
Don't bet him.....no matter what the surface is. I will be shocked if he finishes in the top three in his own barn....let alone in the race. His race here was the result of taking advantage of an absolutely ridiculous bias. In his race in New York he defeated horses like Summer Doldrums pretty unimpressively, and he was actually getting 4 pounds from Summer Doldrums that day!
I assume most of you have already made up your minds by now, and I won't be able to talk you out of it, but I couldn't live with the guilty conscience I would have if I didn't make one last attempt to talk you guys out of it.

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

Wouldn't have mattered either way. . . I hit the exacta as a saver but still lost money when I factor in Oaks/Derby doubles and a few small futures. . .

[byalip]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I tried to warn you guys.....I hoped you listened.
Still, I can't believe he didn't finish 16th! Looks like even that lowly prediction overestimated this one.

Hating Cowtown Cat was my only bit of brilliance today.

SS was kinda obvious but I went with my heart and backed Curlin. i was dead wrong about Hard Spun being too much of a head case to handle the derby.

Seeing Imawildandcrazyguy clunk in for fourth made me feel as ignorant as when Giacomo won. Can anyone explain this?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by byalip

Hating Cowtown Cat was my only bit of brilliance today.

SS was kinda obvious but I went with my heart and backed Curlin. i was dead wrong about Hard Spun being too much of a head case to handle the derby.

Seeing Imawildandcrazyguy clunk in for fourth made me feel as ignorant as when Giacomo won. Can anyone explain this?

Same here. I know that early on Andy Serling liked him a bit and he actually looked very good in the post parade. Hope he ended up including him in the super.