Street Sense Not For Me....

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm crazy. I'm going to let CQ beat me... 8 weeks off? No thanks.

Blah,Blah,Blah....you know you may be right, but I'm so sick and tired of hearing about this layoff crap. Let's just say a few things about this.

1. Would a world class trainer like you know......ugh....Todd Pletcher send a
horse to the derby that wasn't ready???

2. Would Johnny V. choose CQ as his mount if the horse wasn't ready??

3. Have never ever ever bet a horse off an eight week layoff??

Now I don't mean to come down on you Cajun because you are one of many with this opinion. Go look at all his replays like I have done many many times.
This horse is potentially a monster. I may be and judging by my Derby luck in the past...will be wrong. But I will sure as hell take 8-1...10-1 or higher on him than I would..say 7/2 on everyones new hero Curlin.

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Blah,Blah,Blah....you know you may be right, but I'm so sick and tired of hearing about this layoff crap. Let's just say a few things about this.

1. Would a world class trainer like you know......ugh....Todd Pletcher send a
horse to the derby that wasn't ready???

2. Would Johnny V. choose CQ as his mount if the horse wasn't ready??

3. Have never ever ever bet a horse off an eight week layoff??

Now I don't mean to come down on you Cajun because you are one of many with this opinion. Go look at all his replays like I have done many many times.
This horse is potentially a monster. I may be and judging by my Derby luck in the past...will be wrong. But I will sure as hell take 8-1...10-1 or higher on him than I would..say 7/2 on everyones new hero Curlin.

Well i'm convinced.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Blah,Blah,Blah....you know you may be right, but I'm so sick and tired of hearing about this layoff crap. Let's just say a few things about this.

1. Would a world class trainer like you know......ugh....Todd Pletcher send a
horse to the derby that wasn't ready???

2. Would Johnny V. choose CQ as his mount if the horse wasn't ready??

3. Have never ever ever bet a horse off an eight week layoff??

Now I don't mean to come down on you Cajun because you are one of many with this opinion. Go look at all his replays like I have done many many times.
This horse is potentially a monster. I may be and judging by my Derby luck in the past...will be wrong. But I will sure as hell take 8-1...10-1 or higher on him than I would..say 7/2 on everyones new hero Curlin.

I'd bet on a horse off an 8 week layoff, sure. Not in the Kentucky Derby, though. Big difference between THIS race and a normal come back allowance race. I like CQ... just not this time around. It's nothing against him or his talent (as I think he's extremely talented.) As for Curlin, I don't like his chances in the Derby either.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'd bet on a horse off an 8 week layoff, sure. Not in the Kentucky Derby, though. Big difference between THIS race and a normal come back allowance race. I like CQ... just not this time around. It's nothing against him or his talent (as I think he's extremely talented.) As for Curlin, I don't like his chances in the Derby either.

I know what you are saying. I do know that the Derby is not the same as any other race. I've been wrong so many times before and will probably will be wrong again...but I realllllllllly like this horse. In the past I've wavered between 4 or 5 horses in the weeks leading up to the Derby, but despite everything I've read...I'm still on him. Obviously....I won't focus just on him
I'll have tickets galore. So anyway...let the fun begin.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I know what you are saying. I do know that the Derby is not the same as any other race. I've been wrong so many times before and will probably will be wrong again...but I realllllllllly like this horse. In the past I've wavered between 4 or 5 horses in the weeks leading up to the Derby, but despite everything I've read...I'm still on him. Obviously....I won't focus just on him
I'll have tickets galore. So anyway...let the fun begin.

Stick with your gut... this might be a brainless comment ( ), but the Derby is such a crapshoot anyway... sometimes it defies logic. I'm not dissing anyone for their picks. God knows mine have been subpar. I had Barbaro to win last year, but didn't use Bluegrass Cat in any of my wagers. The year before, I had Closing Argument and Afleet Alex, but no Giacomo. What an idiot I am.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Stick with your gut... this might be a brainless comment ( ), but the Derby is such a crapshoot anyway... sometimes it defies logic. I'm not dissing anyone for their picks. God knows mine have been subpar. I had Barbaro to win last year, but didn't use Bluegrass Cat in any of my wagers. The year before, I had Closing Argument and Afleet Alex, but no Giacomo. What an idiot I am.

I was thinking pletcher horses and a few others/pletcher horses/all triple.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Blah,Blah,Blah....you know you may be right, but I'm so sick and tired of hearing about this layoff crap. Let's just say a few things about this.

1. Would a world class trainer like you know......ugh....Todd Pletcher send a
horse to the derby that wasn't ready???

2. Would Johnny V. choose CQ as his mount if the horse wasn't ready??

3. Have never ever ever bet a horse off an eight week layoff??

Now I don't mean to come down on you Cajun because you are one of many with this opinion. Go look at all his replays like I have done many many times.
This horse is potentially a monster. I may be and judging by my Derby luck in the past...will be wrong. But I will sure as hell take 8-1...10-1 or higher on him than I would..say 7/2 on everyones new hero Curlin.

1) Maybe the horse will be ready to run his best, but will it be enough? As good as Mr. P is, he hasn't exactly got this Derby thing figured out yet either

2) bad way to analyze a horses chances in the derby if you ask me, if Pletcher is going to run him JV will be the jockey. There is no way in the world that Pletcher sends him buts JV says "listen, this horse is not ready I'm looking for another mount".

3) Of course eight weeks layoffs are common for other races, and horses can win off eight week layoffs. as you know derby history has not been kind to horses off of long layoffs. Five weeks last year made history.

Add to that another hurdle that I think is not small, no 9 furlong prep races. So in addition to the layoff, he is adding more distance than most.

But the final comment about potential monster is the one most perplexing to me. I see nothing in his PP's to suggest that. If you have watched his replays over and over surely you have noticed the ideal set-up that this one had in the LA Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

1) Maybe the horse will be ready to run his best, but will it be enough? As good as Mr. P is, he hasn't exactly got this Derby thing figured out yet either

2) bad way to analyze a horses chances in the derby if you ask me, if Pletcher is going to run him JV will be the jockey. There is no way in the world that Pletcher sends him buts JV says "listen, this horse is not ready I'm looking for another mount".

3) Of course eight weeks layoffs are common for other races, and horses can win off eight week layoffs. as you know derby history has not been kind to horses off of long layoffs. Five weeks last year made history.

Add to that another hurdle that I think is not small, no 9 furlong prep races. So in addition to the layoff, he is adding more distance than most.

But the final comment about potential monster is the one most perplexing to me. I see nothing in his PP's to suggest that. If you have watched his replays over and over surely you have noticed the ideal set-up that this one had in the LA Derby.

JV had his choice of mounts. He chose CQ.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

JV had his choice of mounts. He chose CQ.

Choice of mounts between how many? Scat Daddy or CQ or AGS?
To me his choice tells me nothing. In my view the other two stand a better chance.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Choice of mounts between how many? Scat Daddy or CQ or AGS?
To me his choice tells me nothing. In my view the other two stand a better chance.

Agreed, but it was JV's choice nonetheless. If he wanted AGS, he would be on him. If he wanted Scat Daddy, he would be on him. Frankly, I'm glad Prado is up on Scat Daddy. I thought his ride on him in the Florida Derby was great.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Agreed, but it was JV's choice nonetheless. If he wanted AGS, he would be on him. If he wanted Scat Daddy, he would be on him. Frankly, I'm glad Prado is up on Scat Daddy. I thought his ride on him in the Florida Derby was great.

I understand that it was his choice. All I'm saying and I think you agree is to not read too much into it.

I don't think there is a better all around rider today than Prado.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

1) Maybe the horse will be ready to run his best, but will it be enough? As good as Mr. P is, he hasn't exactly got this Derby thing figured out yet either

2) bad way to analyze a horses chances in the derby if you ask me, if Pletcher is going to run him JV will be the jockey. There is no way in the world that Pletcher sends him buts JV says "listen, this horse is not ready I'm looking for another mount".

3) Of course eight weeks layoffs are common for other races, and horses can win off eight week layoffs. as you know derby history has not been kind to horses off of long layoffs. Five weeks last year made history.

Add to that another hurdle that I think is not small, no 9 furlong prep races. So in addition to the layoff, he is adding more distance than most.

But the final comment about potential monster is the one most perplexing to me. I see nothing in his PP's to suggest that. If you have watched his replays over and over surely you have noticed the ideal set-up that this one had in the LA Derby.

These are all serious questions to ask of this horse, I agree.

It is hard to make a decision in this race, but I am banking on Pletcher having him ready to do what it takes to win.

Tough gamble to make...

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

1) Maybe the horse will be ready to run his best, but will it be enough? As good as Mr. P is, he hasn't exactly got this Derby thing figured out yet either

2) bad way to analyze a horses chances in the derby if you ask me, if Pletcher is going to run him JV will be the jockey. There is no way in the world that Pletcher sends him buts JV says "listen, this horse is not ready I'm looking for another mount".

3) Of course eight weeks layoffs are common for other races, and horses can win off eight week layoffs. as you know derby history has not been kind to horses off of long layoffs. Five weeks last year made history.

Add to that another hurdle that I think is not small, no 9 furlong prep races. So in addition to the layoff, he is adding more distance than most.

But the final comment about potential monster is the one most perplexing to me. I see nothing in his PP's to suggest that. If you have watched his replays over and over surely you have noticed the ideal set-up that this one had in the LA Derby.

All Great points except for the PP's. We must not see the races the same. Watch his trip in the Juvenille compared to street sense. C'mon this horse just exploded from last to mid-pack in about 50 yards. Then he was taken probably 7-8 wide and lost a ton of ground. All I can say is he offeres the best value out of the the top 4 horses. In fact..you watch..although I'd like to say his odds 8-1 or higher...I'll dare to say that he could be in the neighborhood of 6 or 7-1.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

All Great points except for the PP's. We must not see the races the same. Watch his trip in the Juvenille compared to street sense. C'mon this horse just exploded from last to mid-pack in about 50 yards. Then he was taken probably 7-8 wide and lost a ton of ground. All I can say is he offeres the best value out of the the top 4 horses. In fact..you watch..although I'd like to say his odds 8-1 or higher...I'll dare to say that he could be in the neighborhood of 6 or 7-1.

In the derby I don't look for a horse with a quick explosive move. Those are usually horses that run slow in the beginning of the race, then kick in their rally. The juvenile was 8.5 furlongs, a better distance for a stretched out sprinter. In the derby that looks like it won't have a blistering pace, I don't want a horse that might be in 16th position at the half mile position, counting on some explosive rally through the field. I would much rather have a horse that can more naturally cruise just off the pace and then make a sustained rally.

Think about it, what derbies were won by horses making quick explosive moves?

Another point about CQ, to me others appear to be faster.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

His trip was nearly identical in the Juvenile with Street Sense's until the top of the stretch. That is when SS stayed on the rail, and CQ went wide. It is important to remember, and has already been pointed out on here that CQ was defeated by 10 in the Juvenile. I can forgive a few lengths for going wide, but not 10 lengths.

You know....the funny thing to me is that the same people..maybe not you DaHoss will be quick to excuse Street Sense's race in the Lexington but will be very very very quick to rave about his 10 length win in the Juvenille.
Now, with that said...Street Sense will be on many of my tickets...He's an outstanding horse and yes they did have similar...not identical trips in the Juvenille. Street Sense stayed on a Lightning quick rail. circular Quay went wide. No..that does not excuse 10 lengths...but my original comment on this thread....(Go back and look) was one of my tickets will definitely be a Juvenille Boxed exacta.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

With all due respect there is a big difference between winning a race by 10 lengths and losing by a nose. I really don't think the Bluegrass needs an excuse. Between you and Estreet you'd think he lost by 10. He was beat a nose. His 10 length win needs to be brought up because it is what it is. A 10 length win in the Juvenile against many of these.

So its Ok for Street Sense to beat Great Hunter in that same race by 12 1/2
lengths and then a few weeks ago beat Great Hunter by only 2 1/2???
Also Street Sense beat Scat Daddy, Stormello, Tuflesberg, and many others that day. Horses do improve there Dahoss. Watch the Oddsboard very closely. Also I'm not knocking Street Sense's performance in the Lexington.
Just I tend to look at the facts.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Not to change the subject...but I mention that Sumwons 2nd Sunday was my K-Derby????

Love the debate here...more civil than "outright" attacks on the horse and it's connections.

Carry on...

[Scurlogue Champ]

I can definitely see why people are all over Street Sense and I wouldn't have to try very hard to make a case for him myself.

It is my feeling that he isn't a standout at this point.

If he is on Saturday, I was very wrong.

I felt the same way about SNS last year, didn't include him on any bets.

But I also bet a bunch on Lawyer Ron to win, and that didn't turn out too well.

The odds say the same thing will happen this year with CQ, but I'm still backing him. He is the one I have landed on and I'm sticking with it.

If 'Sense has a clean trip... the horse that finishes fourth will have been beaten roughly a sixteenth of a mile! BBB

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

First off it was the Bluegrass, I'm anal I know but at least get the name of the race right that we are talking about. But I don't get your point. Are you discounting Street Sense because he only beat Great Hunter by 2 1/2 this time and not 12? What about the Breeders Futurity last October that Great Hunter won? You must have had a field day after that race. I assume you didn't have him in the Juvenile though, as he lost in the race before.

You seem to think that these are machines and they run the exact same everytime. Sorry, doesn't work that way.What facts are you looking at that I am not? My take on the poly races is they are very difficult to gauge. How much a horse is defeated on them isn't as important to me as how a horse ran. Evidence of this was the Breeders Futurity last year at Keeneland. I understand horses improve, but who has improved in your eyes, because I don't see it. What exactly am I looking for on the oddsboard? A clue? I am really having a hard time figuring out you and your buddies point. Maybe it's me, but what exactly is your point? That Street Sense is beatable? No sh*t.

I guess my point DaHoss...is and for probably for the 7th - 8th time...I'm not discounting Street Sense one bit. You are simply saying that CQ can't get the distance and that I should also discount CQ because he lost by 10 lengths to Street Sense and of course this awful 8 week layoff. This is gambling and I'm telling you that I'm ignoring the eight week layoff. I'm also telling you that he will be better than he was in the Juvenille.(A race by the way..he had a tough trip. Where he was "steadied" and "was pinched back at the start". He had a powerful close in the HOPEFUL....Had to avoid a fallen horse in the RISEN STAR and still somehow finished 5th....Looked very professional in the LOUISIANA DERBY. I'll bet my horses and you will bet your horses....that's why it's called Pari-Mutual betting. Therefore...I think he will run well in the KENTUCKY DERBY. Good Luck.