Not raced at two results

[Pedigree Ann]

There are some darn good horses on that list, some that went on to G1 glory at 10f and more.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

There are some darn good horses on that list, some that went on to G1 glory at 10f and more.

Yep, but no such luck in the Derby.

[slotdirt]

Forego is absolutely an all-time great.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Forego is absolutely an all-time great.

Yeah, Forego had a bit of a problem that year facing two great horses in the Derby, his finish was actually pretty good...his greatness would manifest later on! Still, lots of very good horses have tried in the past 50 years...simply a tough spot without a foundation.

[AeWingnut]

The Derby has a history. Those who ignore it will regret it later. I am going to let Curlin beat me. I want to ignore the Juvenile Champ curse and play Street Sense but he won't be long enough to include.

[Antitrust32]

That list has about 35 horses on it.. over a 50 year period. When you have a 20 horse field and 19 of those raced at 2, 1 did not, I think it is logical to say one of those 19 will win every year when you add in race trouble, post positions, etc.

There are some good finishes in that list. A few in the money. I don't see why this "curse" cannot be broken. I understand that foundation should be important, but if the most talented horse in the race did not race at two, I dont think the "curse" will be the difference maker.

If Curlin is the best horse in the race (I am not saying he is, but I feel he is one of the top few along with SS, Nobiz and Scat Daddy), and he does not have any or much trouble, he will win. I dont put too much weight on that racing at 2 thing. He has had three very solid races this year and seems to be as fit as any horse in here.

Horses arent "supposed" to win million dollar races in their third start (unless its the Delta Jackpot or BC Juvi), and he has already done that. Geldings arent "supposed" to win the Derby, and Funny Cide did that. Barbaro wasnt "supposed" to win the Derby off of a 5 week layoff, but he did that.

I dont put any weight on the Juvi curse either. A lot of the Juvi winners peak at 2, so of course they are not going to win on the First Saturday in May when others have improved. Some of the Juvi winners also get injured and dont have the opportunity to run for the roses, and there is also distance limitations.

I hope that Street Sense and Curlin dead heat so everyone shuts up about curses.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

That list has about 35 horses on it.. over a 50 year period. When you have a 20 horse field and 19 of those raced at 2, 1 did not, I think it is logical to say one of those 19 will win every year when you add in race trouble, post positions, etc.

There are some good finishes in that list. A few in the money. I don't see why this "curse" cannot be broken. I understand that foundation should be important, but if the most talented horse in the race did not race at two, I dont think the "curse" will be the difference maker.

If Curlin is the best horse in the race (I am not saying he is, but I feel he is one of the top few along with SS, Nobiz and Scat Daddy), and he does not have any or much trouble, he will win. I dont put too much weight on that racing at 2 thing. He has had three very solid races this year and seems to be as fit as any horse in here.

Horses arent "supposed" to win million dollar races in their third start (unless its the Delta Jackpot or BC Juvi), and he has already done that. Geldings arent "supposed" to win the Derby, and Funny Cide did that. Barbaro wasnt "supposed" to win the Derby off of a 5 week layoff, but he did that.

I dont put any weight on the Juvi curse either. A lot of the Juvi winners peak at 2, so of course they are not going to win on the First Saturday in May when others have improved. Some of the Juvi winners also get injured and dont have the opportunity to run for the roses, and there is also distance limitations.

I hope that Street Sense and Curlin dead heat so everyone shuts up about curses.

i agree with your thinking in general.

the way I see it its the same as saying that horses that are racing with a disadvantage win the derby less often. Clearly horses that don't start racing until they are three have started late compared to the derby date and are at a disadvantage to the more experienced in the class.
making it hard and fast 2 vs 3 is not enough. A marginal horse may be off the hook relative to the curse because he started once in December. That doesn't mean he is a better play than a standout horse who didn't start until January.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

The Derby has a history. Those who ignore it will regret it later. I am going to let Curlin beat me. I want to ignore the Juvenile Champ curse and play Street Sense but he won't be long enough to include.

Not a Curlin supporter at all, but to play devil's advocate;

-Gelding
-NY Bred
-5 week layoff

Just off the top of my head...

Derby history is made to be broken...

Again, I am not a Curlin supporter.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ARyan

Not a Curlin supporter at all, but to play devil's advocate;

-Gelding
-NY Bred
-5 week layoff

Just off the top of my head...

Derby history is made to be broken...

Again, I am not a Curlin supporter.

Spoken like a true Curlin supporter.