I want to bet Street Sense.......but

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think he's been campaigned with the intent to peak on Derby Day so I don't think we've seen his best yet this year.

THe problem with this reasoning is How would SS know this when he gets eyeballed in the stretch by AGS? And someone's hitting him with a stick to boot?

"Umm okay, you're hitting me, and these other horses are really close by and it's my natural instinct to run fast, but Carl says to ease up a little before the wire..."

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by easy goer

THe problem with this reasoning is How would SS know this when he gets eyeballed in the stretch by AGS? And someone's hitting him with a stick to boot?

"Umm okay, you're hitting me, and these other horses are really close by and it's my natural instinct to run fast, but Carl says to ease up a little before the wire..."

I'm not an expert in training but I think the trainer can have a horse at a different fitness level for different races depending on the goals. So even if the horse is running all out he might not run as well as he would running all out with the proper fitness level which he should have on Derby Day. He also did hold on to beat AGS and that horse may very likely be the second best horse to step in the gate on Derby Day.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm not an expert in training but I think the trainer can have a horse at a different fitness level for different races depending on the goals.

I dont see it. do you have any other examples of horses and times that work like this? People say it all the time, I have not seen any evidence to back it up.

The other thing is it's hard to say how much help a jock adds to a horse. Sure a Jerry Bailey may occasionally pull out a win or hit the board when it was unlikely, but they cant account for a huge amount. Now take the trainer, that is another level back, how can he be fine tuning the horses speed if even the jock has little control?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He also did hold on to beat AGS and that horse may very likely be the second best horse to step in the gate on Derby Day.

Well it seems to me you've just contradicted your whole theory. If AGS is the second best horse, and AGS best finish was in the TB derby, then you are looking at the two best finishes of the season.

But then you say he's not fully cranked? So SS runs one of the best finishes of the season but he's not fully cranked? This makes no sense to me. I think you are looking at the best of SS in his last 3 races..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by easy goer

I dont see it. do you have any other examples of horses and times that work like this? People say it all the time, I have not seen any evidence to back it up.
The other thing is it's hard to say how much help a jock adds to a horse. Sure a Jerry Bailey may occasionally pull out a win or hit the board when it was unlikely, but they cant account for a huge amount. Now take the trainer, that is another level back, how can he be fine tuning the horses speed if even the jock has little control?




Well it seems to me you've just contradicted your whole theory. If AGS is the second best horse, and AGS best finish was in the TB derby, then you are looking at the two best finishes of the season.

But then you say he's not fully cranked? So SS runs one of the best finishes of the season but he's not fully cranked? This makes no sense to me. I think you are looking at the best of SS in his last 3 races..

Sure, Unbridled, trained by...




Carl Nafzger.

Okay, but SS set a track record in the TB derby. HOw much faster could he possibly go??

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Okay, but SS set a track record in the TB derby. HOw much faster could he possibly go??

How many top class horses have run at Tampa Bay Downs? It isn't like he broke a record set by Secretariat.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

How many top class horses have run at Tampa Bay Downs? It isn't like he broke a record set by Secretariat.

well how much faster do you expect him to finish in? What did he run the final quarter in at TB? 24.3 or so? He ran the final 1/8 in 6.3 so he was tiring a little. Do you expect him to run a 24 on that surface?

WHat did he run at the BC a 24.0 or something? Obviously the inner path had some effect, how much?

so what do you expect him to close w/ next saturday? 23.6? 23.0??

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by easy goer

I dont see it. do you have any other examples of horses and times that work like this? People say it all the time, I have not seen any evidence to back it up.

The other thing is it's hard to say how much help a jock adds to a horse. Sure a Jerry Bailey may occasionally pull out a win or hit the board when it was unlikely, but they cant account for a huge amount. Now take the trainer, that is another level back, how can he be fine tuning the horses speed if even the jock has little control?




Well it seems to me you've just contradicted your whole theory. If AGS is the second best horse, and AGS best finish was in the TB derby, then you are looking at the two best finishes of the season.

But then you say he's not fully cranked? So SS runs one of the best finishes of the season but he's not fully cranked? This makes no sense to me. I think you are looking at the best of SS in his last 3 races..

I think it is a large part of the reason that horses often improve in their second and third starts off a layoff. Usually they come back one to two races before their main goal so aren't fully cranked until the second or third race back. Then you have a horse like Invasor who is trained to peak on BC Day come back off the layoff and fire without a problem because that race was the big goal.

The fact that he was able to beat the horse I think is the second best in the Derby field in a race he wasn't fully cranked up for tells me he may tower above this field. I don't see how I contradicted anything there.