Another Impressive "Street Sense" Work

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My friend, there was nothing "fair and square" about the Southwest Stakes.

The winner took advantge of an uncontested early lead, through comically slow fractions, over what was unquestionably an inside-speed biased racetrack. That same day, a Lukas maiden parlayed the same circumstances, over the same track, into a jaw-dropping 107 Beyer.

Meanwhile, Hard Spun, who was on the early lead in every career start, was taken in hand hard as soon as the gates opened, rated wide and off the comically slow pace, and raced against the grain of everything.

However, the start prior in the stake at the Fairgrounds---Hard Spun beat Tueflesberg by something like 9 lengths---in that race---things were a lot more fair and a lot more square.

I have read accounts like yours many times, and just see it differently. I think people have accorded too many excuses to Hard Spun for that effort.

It was simply not a comically slow pace. Of course it wasn't Hard Spun's best race, and I'm not saying Tueflesberg is the better horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It was simply not a comically slow pace.

A bottom level claimer, at the same distance, set faster fractions earlier on in the card--and still went wire-to-wire.

AND, furthermore, that same bottom level claimer who went wire-to-wire, had never shown any hint of serious speed at any time in his career.

If you look at the naked fractions, I can see how you can be misled into thinking that there was a decent early pace in that race---but if you look at the other route races on that card---and the form of those horses setting those paces---I don't think anyone could argue with how slow that pace was.

Using naked fractions is every bit as faulty as using naked final times...you have to take into account how other horses on that card perform.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A bottom level claimer, at the same distance, set faster fractions earlier on in the card--and still went wire-to-wire.

AND, furthermore, that same bottom level claimer who went wire-to-wire, had never shown any hint of serious speed at any time in his career.

If you look at the naked fractions, I can see how you can be misled into thinking that there was a decent early pace in that race---but if you look at the other route races on that card---and the form of those horses setting those paces---I don't think anyone could argue with how slow that pace was.

Using naked fractions is every bit as faulty as using naked final times...you have to take into account how other horses on that card perform.

We disagree then, to me that race exposed a lack of versatility on Hard Spuns part. The points about being taken in hand, being wide, and against the bias to me don't add up to the clunker he threw in there. I mean that race did not not exactly represent a who's who of the crop.

He is still a puzzle for me because while I was so unimpressed with his Southwest, his comeback in the LanesEnd I thought was an exceptional effort.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.

It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.

Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.

I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.

To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.

If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.

It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.

Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.

I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.

To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.

If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.

You totally lost me with Cobalt Blue. I don't see any similarity to Hard Spuns Southwest.

I didn't say Hard Spun got a good trip, but I certainly don't categorize it as the worst possible trip.

I also didn't say that he was a massive fraud, in act I've never referred to any horse as a fraud. I did say that I thought the race exposed a lack a versatility.

But what do I know, I'm just one of those people that doesn't do any work and looks at a race and says "WOW!"

[The Bid]

Tberg was sick in the Rebel

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Tberg was sick in the Rebel

Perhaps---he will be beaten double digits in the Derby.

The Tesio winner, that won under a Ramon Dominguez hand ride last weekend, was also soundly beaten in the Rebel

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You totally lost me with Cobalt Blue. I don't see any similarity to Hard Spuns Southwest.

I didn't say Hard Spun got a good trip, but I certainly don't categorize it as the worst possible trip.

I also didn't say that he was a massive fraud, in act I've never referred to any horse as a fraud. I did say that I thought the race exposed a lack a versatility.

But what do I know, I'm just one of those people that doesn't do any work and looks at a race and says "WOW!"

Cobalt Blue was also taken back off a slow pace, while racing wide, against the grain of an inside-speed track. Same thing as Hard Spun in the Southwest.

I know you didn't say he was a fraud---I was just saying what I would have said---had I seen footage of the race, and had not been aware of all the details I mentioned.

As for your final sentance--like I said, we seem to view both pace handicapping and trip handicapping very differently. I didn't mean that as a put-down...but you seem to have taken it as one.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Cobalt Blue was also taken back off a slow pace, while racing wide, against the grain of an inside-speed track. Same thing as Hard Spun in the Southwest.

So you feel Cobalt Blue threw in the towel and gave up 13 lengths in the stretch solely because of the trip and inside bias? If so we really do see races differently. I mean he was passed by horses that raced as wide or wider and were twice as far off the pace.

The fact that Cobalt Blue was a few lengths behind the slow pace, and was not on the inside path, might have explained why he couldn't catch Cowtown Cat that day, but it doesn't explain his rapid fade in the stretch. He was never more than a couple lengths behind the slow pace and wasn't all that wide either. I suspect that his poor performance had much more to do with the fact that he simply may not be as good as his recent SA form might suggest, or perhaps the horse was not really ready for the race, being pushed too fast, perhaps he doesn't ship well, perhaps the absensce of Bute, etc.

Have to speak up for the champ here. He (Street Sense) gallops faster than most horses run. Holding either of his two preps against him is futile; both in number and in substance, he beat a nice colt in AGS, in Tampa, off the bench and "won" the Bluegrass over a course he intensely dislikes.

For "ATeam".... works are very important for "the Derby". Perhaps the poly will change trainers approach, but almost all Derby winners have always worked well at CD. Similar to before his Breeders Cup tour de force, 'Sense worked a nothing half at CD, then coasted home a convincing winner. Many say, his trip was aided because of the percieved rail bias, but as I recall he won the race in a matter of seven strides and won with plenty left.

AJim... Curlin, is as outclassed a runner as you will find. Dismissing him on class is not a difficult decision. After all "How many Grade I horse has he faced ? Beat? Grade II's? You get the picture. If he beats half the field it would surprise most cappers.

DrugS... Lately, your posts have been terrific. BBB