Curlin to be m/l fav

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

Blue Grass was a weak prep due to the early pace of the race as slow as one has ever seen. The horses did not get anything out of the race unless you call the 3 furlong dash to the wire worth noting? Horrible prep for them. It will be interesting to see next year who skips that Blue Grass to avoid that pathetic poly track. It did nothing to improve the foundation needed to move onto the Derby.

And tell me how you determine that Scat Daddy is no Barbaro? Based on what? Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was. If Scatt Daddy wins the Derby does he then compare to the great Barbaro? Would think so huh...

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was.

Oh wow! How many lengths is he going to win by then? 15? 20?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Blue Grass was a weak prep due to the early pace of the race as slow as one has ever seen. The horses did not get anything out of the race unless you call the 3 furlong dash to the wire worth noting? Horrible prep for them. It will be interesting to see next year who skips that Blue Grass to avoid that pathetic poly track. It did nothing to improve the foundation needed to move onto the Derby.

And tell me how you determine that Scat Daddy is no Barbaro? Based on what? Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was. If Scatt Daddy wins the Derby does he then compare to the great Barbaro? Would think so huh...

Java OUT

Absolutely agree with this statement here. Scat Daddy is a more accomplished runner than Barbaro was at this same point. At the very least, they are on a very even par. Whether or not he can duplicate Barbaro's feat and win the Derby remains to be seen. Truth is, he could run just as well and still not win it because he's facing a better group that Barbaro, IMO. But I think a lot of people look at what Barbaro did in the Derby and let it cloud their judgement of what was the general opinion of him before the race. Before the race, most people thought he was a definite factor in the race and had a good chance of winning but NOBODY could have predicted he was going to dominate the race the way he did.

[King Glorious]

I may be the only one on here that doesn't know but......what the hell is a RAN curse? I've been in this game for over 20 years and have never heard of that until I read that phrase on here a week ago. Anyone care to fill me in?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I may be the only one on here that doesn't know but......what the hell is a RAN curse? I've been in this game for over 20 years and have never heard of that until I read that phrase on here a week ago. Anyone care to fill me in?

Well, a newbie with only 20 years of experience can't be expected to know such things (that's a joke!). Seriously, as Juliette Lewis would say, "since you asked!":
RAN Curse refers to breeding lines. RAN (Raise A Native) is arguably one of the greatest sires of the 20th century, if you check the Derby winners over the past couple of decades, you'll note that a huge number have RAN in their sire's sire line. I haven't checked but I wouldn't be surprised if about half the runners in this year's Derby have same. Despite that huge success and his production of successful broodmare sires, until Barbaro "broke the curse" last year, no runner with RAN in his dam's sire line had won the Derby. Wonderful horses such as Point Given had failed. There are breeding theories (LH+, stamina from dam) that could explain this...anyway, I would still be cautious of a horse with RAN in dam's sire line in the Derby...doesn't apply so much to other races although both the Preakness and Belmont have fewer winners than one would expect.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Well, a newbie with only 20 years of experience can't be expected to know such things (that's a joke!). Seriously, as Juliette Lewis would say, "since you asked!":
RAN Curse refers to breeding lines. RAN (Raise A Native) is arguably one of the greatest sires of the 20th century, if you check the Derby winners over the past couple of decades, you'll note that a huge number have RAN in their sire's sire line. I haven't checked but I wouldn't be surprised if about half the runners in this year's Derby have same. Despite that huge success and his production of successful broodmare sires, until Barbaro "broke the curse" last year, no runner with RAN in his dam's sire line had won the Derby. Wonderful horses such as Point Given had failed. There are breeding theories (LH+, stamina from dam) that could explain this...anyway, I would still be cautious of a horse with RAN in dam's sire line in the Derby...doesn't apply so much to other races although both the Preakness and Belmont have fewer winners than one would expect.

Thank u. I guess I have never heard of it because I think breeding and dosage stuff is the most overrated and useless information one can use in handicapping.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Thank u. I guess I have never heard of it because I think breeding and dosage stuff is the most overrated and useless information one can use in handicapping.

I wish I felt the same way... how do you bet first time starters?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Thank u. I guess I have never heard of it because I think breeding and dosage stuff is the most overrated and useless information one can use in handicapping.

Everybody's different...RAN is a very influential sire though, in fact two of your "top horses", King Glorious and Smarty Jones descend from RAN in male tail or sire's sire line.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I sort of agree with this. Dosage definitely, I don't think I have ever looked at it and breeding is a bit overated tool. It's useful for stuff like trying to figure out who might like turf, or in baby races who is more apt to be precocious, but after that I think it takes a back seat to trip handicapping and handicapping the race itself.

Pretty much agree with the exception of the Derby and some BC races (for foreign horses...example will a horse running on grass in Europe take to dirt?). In the Derby, you have a lot of horses who have never faced each other...breeding (RAN and other factors) and dosage can help! Belmont also...so few 12 furlong dirt races in the US, breeding can often provide a clue!