Curlin to be m/l fav

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Yeah I realized that but he replied to a guy saying there were a lot of horses who did fit them. (and yes, I initially thought the original poster was saying that all 4 angles needed to be met not just a combo)

I know... I had to read it twice too. I need another pepsi...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I know... I had to read it twice too. I need another pepsi...

Coke is better!

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Coke is better!

No way... don't get me started. <:-)

[Pedigree Ann]

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

Barbaro fit the dosage profile (and then some.)

14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41

[Cajungator26]

Interesting angles:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Kentucky-Derby-Tips&id=535899

Someone tell this guy (Brian Gabrielle) that Real Quiet didn't have the RAN curse since Raise A Native wasn't in his dam's SIRE line.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Interesting angles:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Kentucky-Derby-Tips&id=535899

Someone tell this guy (Brian Gabrielle) that Real Quiet didn't have the RAN curse since Raise A Native wasn't in his dam's SIRE line.

Yeah, I often hear people claiming Real Quiet broke the RAN Curse, he had RAN in dam's dam line, not in dam's sire line. Barbaro was the first horse to break it...there are about 8-9 horses this year who have "The Curse"...we'll see if one of them overcomes it.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yeah, I often hear people claiming Real Quiet broke the RAN Curse, he had RAN in dam's dam line, not in dam's sire line. Barbaro was the first horse to break it...there are about 8-9 horses this year who have "The Curse"...we'll see if one of them overcomes it.

My top pick is one of them. Eek!

[slotdirt]

Without having a minute to comb through pedigrees, who does have RAN this year?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Barbaro fit the dosage profile (and then some.)

14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41

Yeah...again, dosage is worth considering. It wasn't developed as a handicapping tool but certain aspects do seem to apply. The 16 points in DP rule has worked since 1950...only two horses since dosage became meaningful around 1940 have had less than 16 points, Middleground in 1950 had 12 and the great Count Fleet had but 4 in 1943. Only 3 horses had as few as 16...Sunday Silence, Lil E Tee, and Canonero II...SS now has 36 with new CDR's appointed, Canonero was So American so he figured to have fewer. I generally like to see 18 or more. Again...just something to consider and far from a lock, just a guide. I agree that the female lines are just as important, in fact I believe in the LH+ theories as put forth by Hahn and the Reines (female counterpart of CDR's). Also of note, no horse with more than two 0's in DP has ever won the Derby...Slew's Tizzy, if run, would be the only one in this year's field with three (4-0-8-0-0).

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the Dosage Index is more important than the Dosage Profile. Over the last decade, I've seen horses with low DIs have had a relatively low number of points in the profile.

Question: where can I find the DIs and DPs for this year's Derby contenders? I would love to see these figures before I receive Progressive Handicapping's Derby Zone. (It's a fun read, although the historical profile is changing each year.)

Dr Roman's site...http://www.chef-de-race.com/

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the Dosage Index is more important than the Dosage Profile. Over the last decade, I've seen horses with low DIs have had a relatively low number of points in the profile.

Question: where can I find the DIs and DPs for this year's Derby contenders? I would love to see these figures before I receive Progressive Handicapping's Derby Zone. (It's a fun read, although the historical profile is changing each year.)

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/c...s_expanded.htm

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

[slotdirt]

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

Strike the Gold broke the rule when he won with a 9.00 DI. This has since been changed for him to a 2.60. I'm going to Ocala on Wednesday to see a colt by Johannesburg out of a full sister to Strike the Gold.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.

No, Real Quiet had a DP = 13-2-7-0-0 when he won for 22 points, he now has 14-12-12-0-0.

[slotdirt]

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

I stopped using the 4.00/1.00 guidelines a few years ago, Dr Roman himself has stated that due to recent breeding practices, those numbers are relatively weak...I do look at the points in DP however.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

Yes, but Giacomo's was a 4.33 and he won.

Here are this year's dual qualifiers:

Any Given Saturday
Circular Quay
Great Hunter
Liquidity
Nobiz
Scat Daddy
Stormello
Street Sense

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

Perhaps, but it's just another angle that hasn't really been broken yet. Maybe coincidence...