grab some sack..a bettors opinion

[fpsoxfan]

I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.

But, the world famous "Hanifan backwheel" has done wonders for your bankroll.

[ateamstupid]

Just so all of you know, this thread is a thinly veiled shot at me. Hooves thinks that I should be a millionaire, but that I don't bet right.

A little flexibility can be important also. Sometimes I think I know what my big play is going to be but the public pounds the play making it not worth it. I always have some other plays ready and everyonce in a great while a horse that I think is going to go off at horrible odds becomes the play of the day. Here of course is the where most people do not trust themselves (and maybe they should not)... they start asking whats wrong with the horse, what happened to the track, did the jock get sick, Im out of the loop. That is where the confidence needs to kick in, not self doubt. And if there is no play, I just enjoy the races themselves.

I still think the biggest problem is the desire to play too many races. 'I bought the form, I spent a good piece of time capping this race, by God im going to play it' even if the reward as determined by the public, is not worth the risk I see. This is the major downfall of most horse players I have talked to. But I am still in experimental mode. Once I get some time to really study... and I must say the polytrack is really exciting because it has so many people upset.
I just gotta make a trip in the summer and check it out.

In the meantime I play small with some exceptions, and am highly entertained.
I must say that a couple of times when I had the same horse as hooves, it made me a bit more confident in my play. I really try to make my own mistakes though.

[docicu3]

Just a small point to add to the discussion would be that there are probably less than a handful of days during the year that the pure volume of handle can make a strong play like Matt is advocating a life changing score. You get mega payoff if you can hit a big race at moderate odds if you can take down a tri or even in some cases exacta.

For myself my strongest moment in the game so far was being lucky enough to key the Preakness last year as a play against the derby winner. By keying Bernadini/Saint against the field 200 dollar exacta and 75 dollar tri literally paid well into 6 figures on a) very solid horses b) betting against a favorite out of the money 3) playing a triple crown race where the handle is 8 figures

You dont have to win it all to win an incredible amount of money if your right. The winner only paid $28 but the exacta paid $171 and the Tri paid almost 4 thousand for 2. Sometimes volume works heavily in your favor.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Just a small point to add to the discussion would be that there are probably less than a handful of days during the year that the pure volume of handle can make a strong play like Matt is advocating a life changing score. You get mega payoff if you can hit a big race at moderate odds if you can take down a tri or even in some cases exacta.

For myself my strongest moment in the game so far was being lucky enough to key the Preakness last year as a play against the derby winner. By keying Bernadini/Saint against the field 200 dollar exacta and 75 dollar tri literally paid well into 6 figures on a) very solid horses b) betting against a favorite out of the money 3) playing a triple crown race where the handle is 8 figures

You dont have to win it all to win an incredible amount of money if your right. The winner only paid $28 but the exacta paid $171 and the Tri paid almost 4 thousand for 2. Sometimes volume works heavily in your favor.

So what exactly was your rationale for tossing Barbaro?

[docicu3]

Short rest asking for the surperior effort again on two weeks rest......if I am wrong it's just one of many stupid (losing) wagers you make over the course of a year but if you don't take on the giants at shorter odds (0.50 that day) you can't reach for the ring.
Will I ever know if he would have smoked that field....of course not but it doesn't matter all your looking for is an angle with a reasonable chance of (> than 5-10% of covering)

How many horses who win the derby fail to win the preakness?

It's not the horse but the situation and it will happen again this year when a superior horse will be short odds on short rest and the public will still bet it down to almost nothing.

And if they take my several hundred for a chance at a hundred thousand so be it...