Best Derby bets

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

Neatly everything you say about Curlin, You could change the name to Barbaro last year. In my opinion SS is the one that is the least affected by post because he will just take up and take the shortcut. SS problem will come in the stretch with holes clogging up and horses blocking path. Borel has made some great choices in the past races but the pressure is on as far as finding a hole or going around. I dont think any are faster than Curlin . Curlin is probably the best at using his speed and relaxing without the jocky having to work too hard at restraining him. I dont think he will need the perfect trip . The big problem is the size of the field could produce a horible trip such as squeezed to far back out of the gate and get hooked wide in first turn. It seems that some are letting there dislike for Assmusen cloud there opinion of this horse. The X factor is the jockey mis timing of his run and watch one of several deep closers beat him to the wire. Dominican.SS,SD, CQ,Tiago,ags and maybe AGS.

[flifishri]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Neatly everything you say about Curlin, You could change the name to Barbaro last year. In my opinion SS is the one that is the least affected by post because he will just take up and take the shortcut. SS problem will come in the stretch with holes clogging up and horses blocking path. Borel has made some great choices in the past races but the pressure is on as far as finding a hole or going around. I dont think any are faster than Curlin . Curlin is probably the best at using his speed and relaxing without the jocky having to work too hard at restraining him. I dont think he will need the perfect trip . The big problem is the size of the field could produce a horible trip such as squeezed to far back out of the gate and get hooked wide in first turn. It seems that some are letting there dislike for Assmusen cloud there opinion of this horse. The X factor is the jockey mis timing of his run and watch one of several deep closers beat him to the wire. Dominican.SS,SD, CQ,Tiago,ags and maybe AGS.

Agreed: Unless Curlin draws extreme outside, what's to say Albarado won't take him to the lead and dictate the pace or at least just off it? That's very consistent with his style and this combo Curlin/Albarado rates as well as I've seen. His big move comes on the turn and without a troubled trip they're gonna hafta catch him.

[hockey2315]

At 7/2 or so I'll take my chances against him. . . But I do think he's the most talented horse in the race. . . Too bad the derby might be his last. ..

Originally Posted by hockey2315

At 7/2 or so I'll take my chances against him. . . But I do think he's the most talented horse in the race. . . Too bad the derby might be his last. ..

If he goes off at 7/2 I will be very suprised. It will really show the public's severe lack of confidence in this year's crop. Im still thinking Street Sense goes off at 5-1 as the favorite. But we will see. You can never tell what exactly will sway the public.
This is basically why I see the study of Economics a noble attempt to study something very unpredictable. Relying on how the masses will react to something. Heck, look at the stock market. 3 weeks ago it was doom and gloom. People on this very board were saying its time to leave. And now we reach all time highs... very difficult stuff. Human behavior is very complex.