How much time will you spend capping the Derby

[XIIPointStables]

2-3 hours before Derby Day. Then as you mentioned, making adjustments based on the track, weather, et. all on Saturday.

[Bigsmc]

No more than any other race on any other day.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Spent enough already! After the post draw on the Wednesday before...I will have made up my mind who I've picked.
Now, from a "wagering" standpoint...that's a different story.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

No more than any other race on any other day.

I used to think this way too. But from a handicapping perspective....it actually doesn't make a lot of sense. The Derby offers the best opportunity for a good handicapper to make money all year because of the size of the field and the amount of money that goes into the pools from people who don't have a clue.
I will start handicapping it the day before.....and do a bit more on DerbyDay itself. All together it will probably take me somewhere in the neighborhood of eight hours. That is a bit longer than I spend on most races!!
And they are among my favorite eight hours of the entire year.

Between 50-100 hours.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Between 50-100 hours.

I've been handicapping this race since the day Nobiz was born.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I've been handicapping this race since the day Nobiz was born.

Yup! Me too.
Hours?
Far too many.
Now, for the 2-8 spots...I'm doing a kind of "cow flop bingo" with my dog.
I put the names on the sidewalk in chalk. Whereever dear ol' pooch decides to drop his load of undigested lands, I write it down.
I'm paying attention!

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I used to think this way too. But from a handicapping perspective....it actually doesn't make a lot of sense. The Derby offers the best opportunity for a good handicapper to make money all year because of the size of the field and the amount of money that goes into the pools from people who don't have a clue.
I will start handicapping it the day before.....and do a bit more on DerbyDay itself. All together it will probably take me somewhere in the neighborhood of eight hours. That is a bit longer than I spend on most races!!
And they are among my favorite eight hours of the entire year.

It does make sense to me. I am not going to change up what I do and dive in for one race. I can count how many Supers I have played in my lifetime on one hand. I play Pick 3's, 4's and 6's, it's what I do and what I am best at. I will spend just as much time on the undercard as well as the two races after the Derby as the Derby itself. Hell, I will probably spend less time on the Derby because I have already seen the preps and pretty much know who I like. It will just be a matter of deciding how many I put on the ticket and that will be a function of who I like in the other races in the sequence.

i WILL STUDY 10-20 HOURS TOTAL ON THE WHOLE CARD WITH MORE THAN HALF OF THAT ON THE DERBY ITSELF

[Cajungator26]

Depends on how many cervezas I drink.

All kidding aside, I'll probably spend a few hours on it and before I really get started, I want to find out which horse is coming out of the 9 hole.

[SniperSB23]

I'm pretty much constantly capping the race in my head. Don't think I will spend much time at all on the Derby as race day approaches, I'll spend more time on the other races where I'm not quite so familiar with the horses. I will go back and watch some replays of horses like Dominican (especially on dirt) that I haven't been following all along but that is about it.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

It does make sense to me. I am not going to change up what I do and dive in for one race. I can count how many Supers I have played in my lifetime on one hand. I play Pick 3's, 4's and 6's, it's what I do and what I am best at. I will spend just as much time on the undercard as well as the two races after the Derby as the Derby itself. Hell, I will probably spend less time on the Derby because I have already seen the preps and pretty much know who I like. It will just be a matter of deciding how many I put on the ticket and that will be a function of who I like in the other races in the sequence.

I don't disagree with you there....for the most part.
I agree that it is a good idea to stick with what you are best at. If you aren't a Super player (I'm not either) it doesn't make sense to try to become one for one day. But I still think it makes sense to spend more time with the derby because the opportunity to make money is greater no matter how you play. Even if a person is just a "straight win" player, there is usually an opportunity to make a lot of money on this race because of the size of the field and the large number of idiots betting the race. I say, the more opportunity there is to make cash, the more time I am willing to devote to it.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

The longer you spend capping it the less you are earning per hour.

[flifishri]

As long as it takes to bet an online $10 x box on Curlin, Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy!

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree that it is a good idea to stick with what you are best at. If you aren't a Super player (I'm not either) it doesn't make sense to try to become one for one day. But I still think it makes sense to spend more time with the derby because the opportunity to make money is greater no matter how you play. Even if a person is just a "straight win" player, there is usually an opportunity to make a lot of money on this race because of the size of the field and the large number of idiots betting the race. I say, the more opportunity there is to make cash, the more time I am willing to devote to it.

I think it makes sense to take more time on this race than any other because of the opportunities to make more money. I also think this is a race where it pays to "stretch" a little bit in your usual betting strategies, again because of the opportunities to make a hell of a lot more money. If you're a "straight win" bettor, place a little money on the exacta or pick 3. The payoffs are HUGE.

I probably spend too much time on this race. But I also have a huge grin on my face while I'm doing it. It's a lot of fun just trying to figure out all the angles and trying to navigate through the b.s. And then there's all the arguing and gloating/sulking with my handicapping friends (mostly sulking).

[miraja2]

For me the real answer is....however long it takes for me to talk myself out of including the eventual winner in any of my exactas.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Unstable

I think it makes sense to take more time on this race than any other because of the opportunities to make more money. I also think this is a race where it pays to "stretch" a little bit in your usual betting strategies, again because of the opportunities to make a hell of a lot more money. If you're a "straight win" bettor, place a little money on the exacta or pick 3. The payoffs are HUGE.

I probably spend too much time on this race. But I also have a huge grin on my face while I'm doing it. It's a lot of fun just trying to figure out all the angles and trying to navigate through the b.s. And then there's all the arguing and gloating/sulking with my handicapping friends (mostly sulking).

See, I usually bet Pick 3s and 4s that include the Derby, but I've been thinking it over, and it really makes no sense to put so much effort into handicapping one race and very little effort (relatively) into 'capping races that will be equally important to the Pick 3 and 4 wagers. This year, I'll probably be playing inside the race only unless I see some can't miss play in one of the other races.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

It does make sense to me. I am not going to change up what I do and dive in for one race. I can count how many Supers I have played in my lifetime on one hand. I play Pick 3's, 4's and 6's, it's what I do and what I am best at. I will spend just as much time on the undercard as well as the two races after the Derby as the Derby itself. Hell, I will probably spend less time on the Derby because I have already seen the preps and pretty much know who I like. It will just be a matter of deciding how many I put on the ticket and that will be a function of who I like in the other races in the sequence.

But glance at the chart of the 2004 Kentucky Derby to get the "bug" for the super.

1st and 2nd favorite (Smarty Jones and Lion Heart) finished one-two.

Fifth favorite (Imperialism), of eighteen horses, finished 3rd.

Limehouse was the long shot 4th place finisher.


Superfecta paid over $41,000.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

But glance at the chart of the 2004 Kentucky Derby to get the "bug" for the super.

1st and 2nd favorite (Smarty Jones and Lion Heart) finished one-two.

Fifth favorite (Imperialism), of eighteen horses, finished 3rd.

Limehouse was the long shot 4th place finisher.


Superfecta paid over $41,000.

For the record, I lost that year. I needed Limehouse in the top 3.

Never much cared for Imperialism after that.

[fpsoxfan]

First of all, I just want to say sorry to all you Yankee fans that my Red Sox came back and beat you last night. What a game!! I will be spending a good portion of time capping the undercard.
I will Look over all of the Prep races for the Derby and try to lock in on 6-8 horses and go from there. I will also be watching the weather very carefully for the area that I live..Upstate NY. We have a good sized outdoor derby part on my buddies (ESTREETPOSSE)deck. Last year we had 20 MPH winds and chilly weather. Hopefully it will be Sunny and Pleasant.