Best Derby bets

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm intrigued by this often used approach. It seems that if a horse has done all that's been asked of it, the only kink in its armor is that it hasn't faced some sort of adversity (or, more precisely, an impossible to win from trip). And the implication seems to be that if it does, it won't win (or even peripherally that perhaps one or more of the others has faced adversity and fared better.)

Let's face it, NONE of these horses can win with a poor trip. Probably every single one (with the possible exception of Scat Daddy) needs the race to go its own way for it to win. But that's not saying much because that pretty much sums up racing in general.

Not saying that I think Curlin wins the race, although, IMO, he's been the most impressive horse this year, but why would I try to beat him HOPING that he gets a poor trip? That's actually rhetorical cause if the odds are right, it's the proper play. I realize that 3rd time HAS to be the charm with Albarado.

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.