Whos 2nd-4th Derby Lock??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Hell Quay in all three spots is $270 with going 10x9x1 and moving the 1 into three spots. a great play in my opinion. Really depends on how you structure it but I also think Zanjero has a shot at the board....want to see who is going to ride though

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

I would say CQ is a very good choice for a wager like this if I have any faith in him off the layoff.
If he hits the board and just one less than expected horse does as well, you are looking at a $3,000 tri, minimum... that's the beauty of the Derby.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

By the way, my most likely choice to key at this point is Hard Spun. I don't feel super confident he can win (I don't have any real strong opinion this year at all) but I feel very confident in his chances to hit the board.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

By the way, my most likely choice to key at this point is Hard Spun. I don't feel super confident he can win (I don't have any real strong opinion this year at all) but I feel very confident in his chances to hit the board.

Interesting selection right here. He would definitely be part of my ticket in the other legs when using CQ and his 'tg' sheet is very solid, I worry about distance though. In my experience, every Danzig I have ever beat seems to be gasping as the wire. my experience, one of those instances for a horse player I guess

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Interesting selection right here. He would definitely be part of my ticket in the other legs when using CQ and his 'tg' sheet is very solid, I worry about distance though. In my experience, every Danzig I have ever beat seems to be gasping as the wire. my experience, one of those instances for a horse player I guess

He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)

[hockey2315]

Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?

Makes me sick. Just run the f#@$*(@#king horse. Porter finally has a legitimate Derby contender and is doing his best to ruin it.

But I trust Jones. If he's ready, he'll go. If he isn't, he won't- this is a sharp trainer.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

Pletcher WILL break through eventually. He's just got to talk to his mentor on how to have them ready on the big day... so far he's got 2 clunk up seconds and that's it, but his time will come. It took Lukas what, 7 years?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

If you think you're getting 12/1, I think you're nuts.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.

Yep, just filted it from the checking account.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by philcski

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

I like your method here. Thanks for the info.