BEYER: Poly's Anti-Speed Bias

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by nebrady

Whats great about america is the right to free speach. Just because mister B doesn't agree with what beyer says doesn't mean he dislikes him. Truth is that the race was run on the poly for the first time. Until the derby is run who really knows what affect it will have. It amazes me how people on dt love to trash a horse or person. I remember when discreet cat got beat in dubai, how people started to call him garbage. One race doesn't make a horse and along that lines one person statements don't tell the whole truth. Thats what make america and dt great, the right to free speach and the right to voice it!

I agree with what you're saying. It always has to be black and white, great or garbage. It can never be nuanced or grey.

since we have all this free speech, let me ask you a question about your post.

Is it really true that someone referred to Discreet Cat as garbage? I missed that one. It does seem a bit harsh.

[nebrady]

Don't remember the exact words, but they weren't kind to the cat. He loses one race and people think hes done. They get mad because they lost money betting on him. When looking at him before the big race, you should have been a little wary of betting him he missed his prep. But just because he lost that race, shouldn't take away what he has done. Hopefully he will recover and come back the horse he was.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by nebrady

Don't remember the exact words, but they weren't kind to the cat. He loses one race and people think hes done. They get mad because they lost money betting on him. When looking at him before the big race, you should have been a little wary of betting him he missed his prep. But just because he lost that race, shouldn't take away what he has done. Hopefully he will recover and come back the horse he was.

This gets to so much of what's wrong with racing these days in that these horses run so selectively that every race is put under the microscope. Of course most horses have bad days, and if you know anything obviously Discreet Cat's Dubai World Cup performance is a complete throwout, but with so much emphasis being put on one day, like the BC, each race becomes enhanced or exagerated.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This gets to so much of what's wrong with racing these days in that these horses run so selectively that every race is put under the microscope. Of course most horses have bad days, and if you know anything obviously Discreet Cat's Dubai World Cup performance is a complete throwout, but with so much emphasis being put on one day, like the BC, each race becomes enhanced or exagerated.

On the topic of Beyers, since that is what this thread was about, as someone who always takes them into consideration, I can't help but feel like Street Sense's descending figures are not a good sign. It could be partially because I feared that he had peaked in the BC Juvenile and that it would be a long time, if ever, before he duplicated that effort. I just don't get terribly excited about a horse whose last three figures are 108/layoff/102/93. That's not a recipe for success on Derby day in my opinion.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

On the topic of Beyers, since that is what this thread was about, as someone who always takes them into consideration, I can't help but feel like Street Sense's descending figures are not a good sign. It could be partially because I feared that he had peaked in the BC Juvenile and that it would be a long time, if ever, before he duplicated that effort. I just don't get terribly excited about a horse whose last three figures are 108/layoff/102/93. That's not a recipe for success on Derby day in my opinion.

NT

That 93 is the most meaningless figure in the history of Derby preps. The race was run like a turf race so treated like a dirt race it gets a terrible figure. I'd urge anyone to draw a line through that 93 when doing your capping.

[NTamm1215]

I agree the number is probably a bit skewed, but Andy made it clear that Beyer said he thinks the number is right. I think a big part of the problem is that the Polytrack was quite a bit slower on Saturday than it was a week before. 20k claimers went 9 furlongs in just a tad over 1:50 on April 7, while the Blue Grass went in 1:51 and change.

I am not buying that 93 as an absolute certainty, though, and thanks for your insight Sniper.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I agree the number is probably a bit skewed, but Andy made it clear that Beyer said he thinks the number is right. I think a big part of the problem is that the Polytrack was quite a bit slower on Saturday than it was a week before. 20k claimers went 9 furlongs in just a tad over 1:50 on April 7, while the Blue Grass went in 1:51 and change.

I am not buying that 93 as an absolute certainty, though, and thanks for your insight Sniper.

NT

The number is perfectly correct, that doesn't mean it is a number you want to use considering the pace of the race made it virtually impossible to break a 95 Beyer. The polytrack was blazing as evidenced by the speed the last three furlongs of the race went in.