Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

Duly noted.

One quick question.....do you think Time Squared can win the Bluegrass?

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

...This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor... he got tested and he backed out....

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

bernardini was fourth in his first start, i don't know much about that race, how it was run, who won it--but he certainly finished behind some horses in his debut.
as for curlin--the question remains, much like bernardini, is what will he do when he gets eyeballed? a lot of people say who knows what will happen, since he hasn't been, but what if curlin hasn't been because no one can keep up with him long enough to test him? now, after only three starts, i'm certainly not going to start with the 'he's a monster' talk (of course, i have seen that mentioned here) or he can't be tested--he's only run three times!

as to whether he's overrated due to large margins, i guess i'd rather have a horse who may be overrated due to big wins, then to have a horse suffering narrow losses, or barely eking out a win.
so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

Originally Posted by Danzig

so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

as a general prop. probably the gutsy win. Because usually the gutsy win comes at the expense of another good horse and the easy win comes at the expense of chumps and tends to be overrated.

But it's hard to use generalities when you have to bet on an individual horse. If you were to read about these races 100 years from now you, and didnt know the outcome of the derby, you'd probably think Curlin was some flash in the pan who had ran against nobodies. And the best horses had run in FL.

Every time you apply generalities to a horse race you risk being undone by a horse that seems to defy it. Barbaro gunning from the 10 hole at GP. No one had won from that hole at two turns at the new park.

There's really no way to know for sure. Otherwise I guess the parimutual system would have gone broke years ago.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

I think you make a fair point. But, Bernardini lost his first race, so he faced adversity, had some dirt kicked in his face, and felt the heat of a race. Curlin still hasn't done that.

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. Does it totally rule him out? Of course not, but for me, he's a horse to round out the exotics with. I wasn't sold on Barbaro last year until I went back and watched the Florida Derby again a few times. He dug deep and toughed out a really gutty win from his post on that track. Real gutsy. So, come Derby Day, yeah there was traffic, yeah there was speed, but he was in a familiar position.

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. !!!

Your views on pressure may be irrelevant in "great scheme of things" but they might help us to better understand what we are talking about and what we think Curlins problems may be.

If we are saying Curlin may not get 10f if he is forced to run fast in the third quarter that is one thing. ANd perhaps we can look his PPs, or perhaps we can find similar horses, or similar pedigrees and go from there.

If we are talking psychological pressure that is another analysis. I tried to say that personally I dont but into much of it, so you know where I am coming from.

But you are talking about yet another type of pressure! The huge crowd. Does that really happen? It has happened to human performers. Dont know what the hell horses are thinking. Do we have examples of this? Hansel?? I dunno..

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Who Barbaro? or Curlin. YOu are talking Curlin yes? Little bit confusing, meaning "especially". Especially what??

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

Okay, I can buy all that, legitmate concerns.

Competition, yeah it wasn't the best. But what I will say is that he handled Tueflesberg who has beaten Hard Spun and who also ran competively in the Blue Grass. And regardless of the competition, in each of his races there was never any doubt about who the best horse was, he has simply crushed each field. And not like Bernardini did in my view. Curlin has shown that he can come from off the pace, race wide, etc. I think he has been tested and has shown that he is superior. The other contenders, the ones that have supposedly been tested all have question marks of their own imo.

I also like the tempo that he maintains. He doesn't need the lead, he won't be on the lead, but he isn't a real closer. I don't know, maybe he's a presser?
What I'm saying is that his pace is dispersed more evenly throughout the race which is beneficial for long distances. A contrast would be Circular Quay who runs slow, then kicks in. I don't like that style for 10 panels. Others like AGS don't look like they can sustain a top effort the whole way.

he is fighting history in terms of the number of preps, but to me that does not rule him out, especially this year.

I'm not saying that he is my pick, or can't lose, but I am saying that I am not going to rule him out because of the number of preps or who his trainer is.
right now I would say that to me its between him, Street Sense and Dominican. Domincan is the most interesting because everyone is going to write him off as a poly specialist. but he was really impressive how he ran in the BG.