Beyer Fig from Saturday

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Time Squared got an 88 Beyer for beating one horse....

The figure for the Blue Grass is pointless anyway....but, Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 ran 13 points faster earlier on in the card, and the filly of Mott's that won from mid-pack also ran 13 points faster.

I'm positive he cut the race loose....if he doesn't...it's like an 82

Therein lies part of the problem for making figs for turf races ( and make no mistake....this Blue Grass was essentially a turf race from a timing/figure making standpoint ). Because of the slow pace, all the participants are essentially dragged into the race, and the horses that didn't run at all get numbers they can't possibly reproduce in a competitive situation.

Take a look at some of the fields behind Honey Ryder in a Delaware turf race from a year or so ago. There was a John Pregman horse that can barely run a competitive 80 figure who received a number in the low to mid 90s simply because of the slow pace and nature of the race dynamics. This is what Beyer was referring to in our show where he said he knew what I would say about Jader. I constantly have this argument with him.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

[CoronadosQuest]

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CoronadosQuest

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

Storm in May would be an 86 based on the Beyer beaten lengths chart.

[ateamstupid]

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

[Uncle Daddy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I agree, stupid money will atalk about the Juvenile jinx and you may get 5 or 6 to 1. If you still like Graet Hunter, I would think it jumps to 15 0r 20

[XIIPointStables]

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cardus

What do you think would be the wagering impact if Thorograph, Ragozin, and/or Brisnet Speed/Pace Figures had more favorable impressions of Street Sense's Blue Grass run?

I think very little. Maybe half a point. The Derby takes more "novice" money (i.e. people who bet on races casually and only/mainly use BSFs) than any other race of the year, so I don't think all of the players that use the figures you listed above will have that much of an impact.

[Antitrust32]

93 or not, I remember Street Sense last year off the poly onto Churchill...
I think that is where my money goes..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cardus

There is no way to quantify this, but my impression is that novice bettors' money comprises a small percentage of the Kentucky Derby mutuel wagers. The whales in the game use these sheets and figures.

The novice bettors -- people who wager only a few times each year, or only on each Triple Crown race -- wager $10 or $20 on their selections, while the whales are putting up thousands of dollars on the race.

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

hooves, I'm not sure Beyer should be adjusting figs because of different pace scenarios.

Beyer has never tried to give an honest account of all parameters. If he doesn't try to adjust a fig to account for a huge bias or a terrible trip or a loose-on-the-lead benefit, then why should he now take pace factors into account? The figs were originally a way to compare the final times of races run at different tracks, and races run on different days at the same track. When Beyer deviates from that vision, he risks undermining his own figs.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

If regression was to be expected after the TB Derby, why wouldn't there be a good chance of further regression from two tough races back-to-back off the lay-off?