Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Could you elaborate a little bit...

Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:

1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)

If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.

I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.

--Dunbar

[Antitrust32]

Grits hit the ultimate exacta today early at Keeneland. She should be ahead now with not very many to go..

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Grits hit the ultimate exacta today early at Keeneland. She should be ahead now with not very many to go..

Anti, you're right that $223.60 exacta was sweet.

[jman5581]

neither of these strategies has really proven to me that one is far superior to the other.

I would be more inclined to play the Place strategy with larger wagers and the exacta with a smaller amount. Just based on the odds of coming up with a place vs. coming up with an exacta and the practical bankroll considerations.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:

1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)

If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.

I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.

--Dunbar

Nah, I just haven't really wrapped myself around it enough, or summoned the energy, to give a good response. I will.

[Antitrust32]

I bet grits wins the bottle of scotch, anyone want to bet against?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I bet grits wins the bottle of scotch, anyone want to bet against?

The contest ended after the 4th at Aqueduct and three above 10-1 horses ran first or second. The exacta won by a minor amount.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The contest ended after the 4th at Aqueduct and three above 10-1 horses ran first or second. The exacta won by a minor amount.

Yes, the first race was a nice exacta hit, if it wasnt for that, it would have been REAL close, especially with that $108 horse in the 4th

[Antitrust32]

I look forward to examining the next 250 place payouts Dunbar tracks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Yes, the first race was a nice exacta hit, if it wasnt for that, it would have been REAL close, especially with that $108 horse in the 4th

This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.

I agree that I thought the exacta pool would win by much more, and Gulfstream was pretty much out of the ordinary for awhile there. It will be interesting to see what the next 250 results are.

Just pointing out how close of a race it was and evaluating the final strides...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.

That's correct. However, when the difference after 250 bets is less than many of the individual exacta payoffs, you can be reasonably sure that the result is statistically meaningless. If one side or the other had finished ahead by 3 or 4 exacta bets, we could at least say that the result supported one side or the other.

--Dunbar