Curlin

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I believe the last horse to win the Derby with less than 5 lifetime starts was Exterminator in 1918.

How many starts did Bernardini have going into the Preakness? I'm almost positive it was three starts.

Time is changing....

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many starts did Bernardini have going into the Preakness? I'm almost positive it was three starts.

Time is changing....

And none around two turns.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many starts did Bernardini have going into the Preakness? I'm almost positive it was three starts.

Time is changing....

The Preakness is the Preakness and the Derby is the Derby....you can laugh at history or consider it, up to you. Fact is that it's been since 1918 that a horse with less than 5 starts won the Derby, Exterminator was an exceptional animal and he had four! Times change but so far a lot of very good horses failed to break this angle, same with the stat that no horse without a start at two has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882...yeah I know FuPeg started in late December but the angle still stands. Additionally, no horse with less than 3 starts at three prior to the Derby has won since Sunny's Halo in 1983, prior to that it was Jet Pilot in 1947. An exceptional horse will no doubt overcome any of these angles sooner or later (Barbaro broke the RAN Curse last year) but all are worthy of consideration before going "gaga" over a horse.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many starts did Bernardini have going into the Preakness? I'm almost positive it was three starts.

Time is changing....

But the Preakness is a much different race, often with less than 10 horses unlike the Derby which is unique with its field size

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many starts did Bernardini have going into the Preakness? I'm almost positive it was three starts.

Time is changing....

I actually had Bernie in mind when I started this thread.

With regard to horses going into the Derby with only three starts. I think that is all Regret had, but that was 92 years ago. If I am not mistaken Charlie Whittingham started Strodes Creek in the Derby with only three starts. He finished 2nd.

I was just going to ask about Strodes Creek or some horse like that. Are there any other horses that hit the board w/ less than three starts in soph year or in total?

I agree that it seems that a lack of seasoning does leave these horses more vulnerable later down the road. I havent counted it, but it's the impression I get. IN the old days they did start more and seemed to be hardier. The breakdown rate though appears to be about the same level it was in the
1960s, approx. 1/400. Maybe they just make less starts.

I fail to see how Fu Peg getting his one start on Dec. 30 or Dec. 31 keeps the "no starts at 2" jinx alive? Doesnt it work against this angle? I mean do you really believe 24 hours would make a difference to how this horses runs in May? Fu Peg win on Jan. 1 and the curse is over, but he runs on Dec. 30 and the curse is still a good angle to play???

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Anyhow, will toss Curlin and Deadly Dealer and hope to key exotics on Officer Rocket...Good luck, this race seems bordering on chaos..