Real Derby Contenders

[Sightseek]

Top Pick - Any Given Saturday

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Longshot horse - Sam P.

[SniperSB23]

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

street sense
any givensat
circular quay
curlin
think one of these four have the best shot

[Scav]

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

[Scav]

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -- who at this point are probably my two key horses for the Derby and of course less inclusions of the other contenders (not trying to say they're your Derby exacta by any means).

[Danzig]

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kimmeastar

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

i'm not worried about him-i think he finishes far back on derby day.

edit---i'm not 'worried' about him, i said above that i'm worried insofar as i think they are putting him in a bad start, that he won't finish well.

cajun, i agree on nobiz. i don't like him derby day eith

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

I agree,But,he is a player that shouldn't be taken too lightly.I think he will be the pacesetter.

[whodey17]

I like Notional and I like Cowtown Cat. The prob I have with the Quay and SS is that they will need an opening and with 20 horses that is very hard to do. Great Hunter is a logical choice and so is Any Given Saturday.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -

How?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How?

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

Help his price, ok I get it now.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Scav

I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Victor Espinoza, with 76 wins only seven behind Santa Anita leader Garrett Gomez with eight racing days remaining, is sitting behind Corey Nakatani for a possible Kentucky Derby mount.

“We’ll ride either Notional or Great Hunter for Doug O’Neill,” agent Tony Matos said Friday. “Whichever one Corey rides, we’ll ride the other.”

Great info Hot, thanks for making me not go to sleep for 3 weeks now thinking about all the money I am going to make on Notional when CNak gets aboard..

Either way, I am happy with either jock quite honestly, even though I think Victor is a better front rider then back but whatever, both are good jocks, better then Albarado

just thinking, could we possibly have an Albarado Off angle created soon? Something to focus on