Real Derby Contenders

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.

Buckle down and stay safe, D...

I hope it's not bad enough to keep them from running tomorrow.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Buckle down and stay safe, D...

I hope it's not bad enough to keep them from running tomorrow.

oh, it's not too bad. we just got in from a trip down south--i live in a dry county (the horror, the horror!!) and we have to drive about 40 minutes to get the devil's brew. incredible lightening show on the way home. of course it got dark, so i had to quit trying to read the bloodhorse from last week that i just got a chance to dig into.

but i'm with you, hopefully the race goes off, and everyone comes in ok. gotta tape it, as i have to work a rare saturday. like the 60 hours i put in this week already wasn't enough!

[Sightseek]

Top Pick - Any Given Saturday

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Longshot horse - Sam P.

[SniperSB23]

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

street sense
any givensat
circular quay
curlin
think one of these four have the best shot

[Scav]

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

[Scav]

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -- who at this point are probably my two key horses for the Derby and of course less inclusions of the other contenders (not trying to say they're your Derby exacta by any means).

[Danzig]

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -

How?

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I would be out of my mind ecstatic if we were to get such odds on him...I believe his style sets him up for a good chance to rope the front end in...

I honestly don't see how people will 'focus' on him. What I would love people to watch is his gallop out in the Florida Derby. He was about 5 lengths in front right at the turn and just kept going. Now I know his breeding says no to 10f but as Andy says "I DON'T CARE WHAT HIS BREEDING IS"

To me, I want to see what Nakatini does, if Liquidity doesn't go, which I am hoping he doesn't, O'Neil and Nak are boys and if Nak gets him, HELLO MONEY for ALL that plays him

Right now I would go:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Nobiz

in that order.

Circular Quay I dont like at all. If he does win, preps are really going to change. Barbaro has started a trend that might die this year. If CQ wins, huge reinforcement of take it easy path.

If Scat Daddy wins, more of a return to "run that animal". Very trendy stuff.
And I also realize the trendy nature of my first two as they will run tomorrow. They have not hurt me yet. So we wait. WE also must make note of post position influence. If Street Sense starts from the 20 hole... I dont like him.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

I dont follow your logic?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont follow your logic?

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

Great info, Scav. Thanks for posting this.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distanceStreet Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.
Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

These two horses I will have to deeply consider including...