Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[Dunbar]

Day 30 (No dark days included) April 12, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$71.60

(AQ cancelled after 2)

KE: Race1-- PL 23.00
KE: Race2-- PL 6.60 EX 38.40
KE: Race3-- PL 16.80
KE: Race7-- PL 9.40



Today's races: EX $38.40, PL $55.80
Today's differential: PL +$17.40

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3452.00, PL $3397.80
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$54.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (225) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 70 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--675

It tightens up a bit, assuming I didn't make a mistake!.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Day 31 (No dark days included) April 13, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$54.20

AQ,KE,SA

KE: Race1-- PL 26.80
KE: Race7-- PL 7.80 EX 55.80
KE: Race8-- PL 15.60
KE: Race10-- PL 20.20
SA: Race1-- PL 6.60 EX 18.20
SA: Race2-- PL 7.80



Today's races: EX $74.00, PL $84.80
Today's differential: PL +$10.80

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3526.00, PL $3482.60
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$43.40

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (231) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 72 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--702


--Dunbar

[Grits]

Dunbar, thank you for posting!!

Good luck if you're playing today. I think we'll have a lot of rain here in Lexington today.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Grits

Dunbar, thank you for posting!!

Good luck if you're playing today. I think we'll have a lot of rain here in Lexington today.

Grits, can you believe how close the "contest" is, after 702 races and 231 place bets?! Amazing.

Thanks for the weather report. It looks like the weather will be decent at Oaklawn.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

And down the stretch the come!

Day 32 (No dark days included) April 14, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$43.40

AQ,KE,SA

AQ: Race1-- PL 9.20
AQ: Race3-- PL 12.20
AQ: Race7-- PL 37.40
AQ: Race8-- PL 13.60
AQ: Race9-- PL 9.90
KE: Race2-- PL 13.40
KE: Race7-- PL 16.80
KE: Race8-- PL 11.80
SA: Race3-- PL 9.00
SA: Race5-- PL 9.60
SA: Race6-- PL 13.00
SA: Race8-- PL 11.40 EX 39.80



Today's races: EX $39.80, PL $167.30
Today's differential: PL +$127.50

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3565.80, PL $3649.90
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$84.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (243) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 73 (30%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--730

Place surges back into the lead, but it will all come down to the last day, which may be today, even with AQ cancelling.

I assume that the intent is to stop the original Contest exactly at 250 place bets. If there are more than 7 place bets today, I'll only count the first 7 (according to post time) in deciding who the winner is. If by some bit of statistical cruelty there are 2 qualifying place bets in the race where just 1 would get us to 250, I'll only count the winner's place payoff. (If randall and Grits agree on a different procedure, I'll do whatever they agree on.)

Also, as I said before, I'll keep the record going for another 250 place bets, until a total of 500 have been run. But the first 250 will decide Randall and Grit's bet.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Monster hit by Exactas in the 1st at Keenland!

Day 33 (No dark days included) April 15, 2007
Carryover differential: PLACE BETTING +$84.10

KE,SA (AQ cancelled)

KE: Race1-- PL 21.60 EX 223.60
KE: Race8-- PL 10.00
KE: Race8-- PL 14.80
SA: Race5-- PL 12.60



Today's races: EX $223.60, PL $59.00
Today's differential: EX +$164.60

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3789.40, PL $3708.90
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$80.50

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (247) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 74 (30%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--748

Exacta takes what looks like an insurmountable lead ($80.50) with 3 place bets left to go.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

It's all over, folks! Well, sort of over....

Day 34 (No dark days included) April 18, 2007
Carryover differential: PLACE BETTING +$80.50

AQ, KE, SA

AQ: Race1-- PL 15.40 EX 64.00
AQ: Race2-- PL 14.20
AQ: Race4-- PL 32.40


Today's races: EX $64.00, PL $62.00
Today's differential: EX +$2.00

Final Totals: EX $3853.40, PL $3770.90
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$82.50

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (250) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 75 (30%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--755 (we stopped as soon as we hit the 250th place bet. I'm including 3 races at Keenland in the total of "races run".)



Congrats go to Grits for winning the bet with Randall.

The exacta bets won by $82.50. That's 2.2% more than the Place bets. However, the $82.50 margin is less than many of the exacta bets. It looks like we will need a LOT more races to see a difference that is big enough to consider meaningful.

My intention is to follow this out for another 250 place bets. However, if BTWind comes back with some historical data that is compelling, I'll probably hang it up.

--Dunbar

[golfer]

During this whole excercise, I've never understood why it has to be THE favorite on top of your longshot play? Why, if you like a longshot, would you just robotically play the favorite on top of your horse anyway? What about using a few horses, or even the all button (although this might dilute your return on investment)? Andy, my question has always been, would I be better off playing my choice to place (obviously to win as well), or underneath (and on top) in exactas. I would reasonably put my horse underneath all that I believe have a chance to win, no?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

During this whole excercise, I've never understood why it has to be THE favorite on top of your longshot play? Why, if you like a longshot, would you just robotically play the favorite on top of your horse anyway? What about using a few horses, or even the all button (although this might dilute your return on investment)? Andy, my question has always been, would I be better off playing my choice to place (obviously to win as well), or underneath (and on top) in exactas. I would reasonably put my horse underneath all that I believe have a chance to win, no?

You should never bet to place. That's where you start. I'll try to answer better when I'm more awake tomorrow.