Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I didn't see your post when I replied to Grits. Thanks for catching the mistake!

I'll correct it by editing the original post.

--Dunbar

Wouldn't you know it, last night, it the first . . . that I have not gone and checked results of all three tracks. Too tired.

Anyway, thankk you D.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Grits

Wouldn't you know it, last night, it the first . . . that I have not gone and checked results of all three tracks. Too tired.

Anyway, thankk you D.

It was a rookie mistake I made, Grits. Glad BTWind was looking over my shoulder. If I can just train myself to look for that asterisk in the equibase chart, I should be okay going forward!

I'm actually rooting for Place in this showdown, so it's funny I'd blow it in the other direction.

One thing seems clear to me at this point. 250 place bets isn't enough to resolve the issue on which is the better strategy with any sort of statistical certainty. (Though it's of course enough to resolve any bet you and randall may have made!) We are getting daily differences that are twice as big as the overall difference. At this point we are waiting for the head bob to see which will win.

It looks as if the first 250 bets will be finished in about 5 weeks from the start. If no one objects, I will continue until a total of 500 place bets have been made. But we'll go ahead and announce the 250-bet winner when that occurs.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It was a rookie mistake I made, Grits. Glad BTWind was looking over my shoulder. If I can just train myself to look for that asterisk in the equibase chart, I should be okay going forward!

I'm actually rooting for Place in this showdown, so it's funny I'd blow it in the other direction.

One thing seems clear to me at this point. 250 place bets isn't enough to resolve the issue on which is the better strategy with any sort of statistical certainty. (Though it's of course enough to resolve any bet you and randall may have made!) We are getting daily differences that are twice as big as the overall difference. At this point we are waiting for the head bob to see which will win.

It looks as if the first 250 bets will be finished in about 5 weeks from the start. If no one objects, I will continue until a total of 500 place bets have been made. But we'll go ahead and announce the 250-bet winner when that occurs.

--Dunbar

The reality is that the exacta is mathematically the right bet and an aberational result that showed place bets " winning " would be deceptive and unfortunate.

I agree about the relatively small sample size, and always felt all you needed to do was look over six months of past results, but the contest was created for whatever reasons in this manner. Regardless, it's been fun.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reality is that the exacta is mathematically the right bet and an aberational result that showed place bets " winning " would be deceptive and unfortunate.

I agree about the relatively small sample size, and always felt all you needed to do was look over six months of past results, but the contest was created for whatever reasons in this manner. Regardless, it's been fun.

Can you elaborate on why you feel "the exacta is mathematically the right bet"? There's something I'm missing with that, and I want to understand it.

I rarely make a place bets, and I even more rarely make "saver" exacta bets, but I just want to understand what you're talking about.

--Dunbar

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Can you elaborate on why you feel "the exacta is mathematically the right bet"? There's something I'm missing with that, and I want to understand it.

I rarely make a place bets, and I even more rarely make "saver" exacta bets, but I just want to understand what you're talking about.

--Dunbar

Not speaking for BTW...
My view is that the exacta bet sould hit about a third of the time when the other horse runs second....if the average exacta payouts are more than 3 times the other horses place payout then the exacta will have a better ROI.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

So, you're saying that even when the pools are "efficient", there is a built-in mathematical edge to the exacta pool? (at least as far as the 2 bets we are comparing)

Or are you saying that people systematically bet in such a way that the exacta pool is better as far as these 2 bets are concerned?

I'm working on an example, but I'll probably have to assume the pool is "efficient" for it to be at all general.

--Dunbar

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

Could you elaborate a little bit...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Could you elaborate a little bit...

Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:

1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)

If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.

I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.

--Dunbar