Nobiz Like Showbiz

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran 1 1/2 seconds slower than Magna Graduate.

thats fine, i love that.... he was alot more professional today thats all that matters, i dont want to see him run to fast now, i want him to run fast on the first saturday of may.

[golfer]

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

i know im not andy, but there is nothing good about any given saturdays performance he had a fine trip and at the top of the stretch when it was time to run he quit.

[sumitas]

then he may be in for the 0-2-X bounce in the derby

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

[randallscott35]

Maybe, just maybe that Tampa race wasn't nearly what people thought it was. Next week will tell the tale.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Maybe, just maybe that Tampa race wasn't nearly what people thought it was. Next week will tell the tale.

Do you honestly think Any Given Saturday's effort in the Wood was in any way comparable to his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Do you honestly think Any Given Saturday's effort in the Wood was in any way comparable to his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby?

No, which is my point. Mind you he got about a 1 for that, so Street Sense was nowhere near a negative number for that race...Tin cups down there in Tampa. And I think you will see that when SS runs in the Blue Grass.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No, which is my point. Mind you he got about a 1 for that, so Street Sense was nowhere near a negative number for that race...Tin cups down there in Tampa. And I think you will see that when SS runs in the Blue Grass.

This seems like a contradiction to me. You first said maybe the Tampa race wasn't that good....and now you are saying what......it was good and today he was bad or both races were bad?

It has to be one or the other as today's effort by Any Given Saturday was flat out dreadful.

[Danzig]

he didn't perform to expectations, but if he has enough graded to get in, then the plan worked--except for the poor showing of course. but at least now he does have an extra week between now and the derby, and we all know how much people love time between races now.


deviation from the plan is why i'm really starting to shy away from hard spun. they are really seeming to flounder now, over-thinking the situation with that horse.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

Purely speculation but it is entirely possible that he gave him a little extra time after the last race anticipating a 4 week layoff but it would be hard to believe that he could be that short after all the training he's had and having just his eyeballs out run 3 weeks ago.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont forget that sheet numbers arent facts they are opinions

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dont forget that sheet numbers arent facts they are opinions

bingo we have a winner..voodoo

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Purely speculation but it is entirely possible that he gave him a little extra time after the last race anticipating a 4 week layoff but it would be hard to believe that he could be that short after all the training he's had and having just his eyeballs out run 3 weeks ago.

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

i would take that bet in a heartbeat.......
and its not all about today i have never liked any given saturday and i have liked tiago for a while and today's efforts by both only makes me feel stronger about my opinions

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

Wow! Can we say "straw man" argument?

WHen Pt. Given made that comment about AGS skipping the derby, at first I thought "No, no." But after thinking about it (a whole 5 minutes) it isnt the craziest idea by any stretch. Much as I like AGS he just seems destined come up short. He'd be a great bet to hit the board in the derby, but I dont see him winning it. Sure he's better than probably 12 or 13 other horses in the derby, but would he be able to beat whoever is left running in the stretch on derby day?


Think back to his stretch battles vs. Tiz Wonderful and SS were great but isnt he, just the tinsiest bit hesistant when he eyeballs the other horse...?


I'll leave it at that. YOu guys have far more experience than, me in this.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

he lost by a scant nose to street sense, carried four wide while SS had the rail--lost ground alone would make up the nose difference and then some.
if a horse skipped the derby because he lost in the wood, we would not have genuine risk and secretariat as derby champs! it's a loss, not the end of the world.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he lost by a scant nose to street sense, carried four wide while SS had the rail--lost ground alone would make up the nose difference and then some.
if a horse skipped the derby because he lost in the wood, we would not have genuine risk and secretariat as derby champs! it's a loss, not the end of the world.

it's not just the loss, its the way he lost, maybe the street sense race took to much out of him, if they run him back in the derby in 4 weeks they could ruin the horse, it happens every year.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

U don't need Chuck to tell u this. This is EXACTLY what I said would be the case before the race.