Lava Man

[robfla]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Wrong.
He runs worse speed figs too. Sometimes when he is shipped horses that he beat easily in SoCal (like Brother Derek) beat him easily elsewhere. He does face tougher competition, but he also just runs poorly when he ships.

he runs worse figures because he is over his head. especially against the best turf horses in the WORLD

Heck, Perfect Drift beat him in Cali, so did Rock Hard Ten and Borrego.

Bring the same horse he faced Saturday to California, let THEM ship to him, he still gets trounced.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by robfla

he runs worse figures because he is over his head. especially against the best turf horses in the WORLD

Heck, Perfect Drift beat him in Cali, so did Rock Hard Ten and Borrego.

Bring the same horse he faced Saturday to California, let THEM ship to him, he still gets trounced.

I'm not saying he would have won that race if it had been run at a SoCal track. I don't think he would. But it is absolutely incorrect to say that this horse runs the same races away from the three SoCal tracks that he runs at them. It isn't really a debatable topic. It is just a fact.
We already had this whole argument in the Dubai Duty Free thread, so I don't want to have it all again.
But he is without question a different horse outside of Cali than he is in Cali. Your suggestion that shipping doesn't affect him at all is laughably incorrect, and anyone that has watched this horse run or knows how to read past performances knows that.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I'm not saying he would have won that race if it had been run at a SoCal track. I don't think he would. But it is absolutely incorrect to say that this horse runs the same races away from the three SoCal tracks that he runs at them. It isn't really a debatable topic. It is just a fact.
We already had this whole argument in the Dubai Duty Free thread, so I don't want to have it all again.
But he is without question a different horse outside of Cali than he is in Cali. Your suggestion that shipping doesn't affect him at all is laughably incorrect, and anyone that has watched this horse run or knows how to read past performances knows that.

Do you ever think that its because he doesnt have his way outside california and buckles under those circumstances? also, the medication?

The past two times this horse has run outside his home state, the preview articles in written by turf writers online have raved about how good he looks and how hes been training.. (while he was in Kentucky and Dubai). Then he goes out and doesnt run a lick. I dont think its from shipping or turf writers wouldnt be raving about how hes training in the other regions.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Do you ever think that its because he doesnt have his way outside california and buckles under those circumstances? also, the medication?

The past two times this horse has run outside his home state, the preview articles in written by turf writers online have raved about how good he looks and how hes been training.. (while he was in Kentucky and Dubai). Then he goes out and doesnt run a lick. I dont think its from shipping or turf writers wouldnt be raving about how hes training in the other regions.

The medication could be part (or maybe all) of it. I honestly have no idea.
It isn't like he always just gets an uncontested lead in his SoCal races. Sometimes he is behind horses, sometimes he is pressured, and he responds, runs a strong figure and wins. When he faces the exact same scenario at any other track in the world, he just quits.

[The Bid]

Not having the medication or any of the other help he gets is the sole reason for his poor performance. His stall walking, bad shipping, all that other stuff, thats all just bullshit. He cant run unless hes jugged and drugged.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Not having the medication or any of the other help he gets is the sole reason for his poor performance. He cant run unless hes jugged and drugged.

This is the explanation that makes the most sense to me too. But it is difficult to say for sure.
According to robfla (and others) however, this has no effect on him at all!!!! He runs the exact same with or without the stuff!!

[robfla]

Originally Posted by miraja2

According to robfla (and others) however, this has no effect on him at all!!!! He runs the exact same with or without the stuff!!

please show me where i said that?

my point is simple: the MAIN REASON he runs worse is the level of competition.

not the only reason - i do believe other factors apply ( med, travel, etc. )

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by miraja2

This is the explanation that makes the most sense to me too. But it is difficult to say for sure.
According to robfla (and others) however, this has no effect on him at all!!!! He runs the exact same with or without the stuff!!

I have to agree that the medication is the main reason for Lava Man not being "himself". But, I also must state that even if he was as drugged up as Timothy Leary, he would still not finish in the money against the competition he faces outside Cali. just not good enough

also, "lack of medication" is different than "shipping" issues. I still dont and wont buy the shipping excuse!

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by robfla

he runs worse figures because he is over his head. especially against the best turf horses in the WORLD

Heck, Perfect Drift beat him in Cali, so did Rock Hard Ten and Borrego.

Bring the same horse he faced Saturday to California, let THEM ship to him, he still gets trounced.

Definately have to agree with this. GPK and I discussed this after the race. The horses bred oversea's are bred for the turf and bred for distance, they are just much better quality than the US turf horses. The results show in the Breeders Cup turf and Mile also (for the most part). Do you think its coincidence that the US horses won most of the Dirt races in Dubai? no, US horses were bred for the dirt and have better quality (again, for the most part). Even the well bred turf horses that were bred in the US are snatched up by coolmore and the shieks and sent overseas to race (again, there is always an exception).

Lava Man does his job in Cali, and he should be praised for that, but who does he face? Nothing like he's faced in his last two very poor performances outside Cali. I just can't buy that shipping excuse. He's just not good enough.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I just can't buy that shipping excuse. He's just not good enough.

You are half right.
He isn't good enough to beat the top grass horses in the world no matter where the race was run. The fact that he was the favorite in this race was insane.
He also couldn't have beaten Invasor and Bernardini in the BCC last year even if the race had been at one of "his" tracks.
So the shipping does not "cause" him to lose.....but it does cause him to run worse than he typically does.