Bluegrass or Florida Derby

[pointman]

Hard to say that NoBiz is not top flight. The Arkansas Derby is for $1M and it seems to me that out of the FD, BG, Wood and AD the AD presents the least competition. I can understand Hard Spun not going that route, but not sure why AGS would want to face SS again when there is an easier race on the same day. Maybe it is that he is a known on that surface. I thought that CQ was going to the Wood, but I have not checked lately. If that is the case, that explains why Pletcher would not take AGS to the AD.

[Linny]

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Linny

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?

Since AGS is on the fringe of earnings my point was that he is sure to get in with a 1st or 2nd at either the BG or AD, the difference being his chances are better in the AD since it seems to be coming up a bit light as opposed to facing a better field in the Bluegrass. Although, if he does have $102K he is likely to get in as I don't think a horse with over $100K has failed to get in the Derby yet. Just thought that Graded earnings were an issue, if you want to make sure you can get enough to get in, Arkansas seems to be an easier place than BG. Forgot anout Santa Anita, that it is coming up light as well.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Linny

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?

i dont think he will be top 2 not with hard spun, street sense, and great hunter... i'd prefer any of those horse to any given saturday

[lemoncrush]

AGS could run in the coolmore lexington I imagine, but the 2 weeks is obviously the issue. He needs graded earnings, although if we don't see any more upsets, I think he gets in regardless.
Pletcher's runners:
CQ - Wood
Scat Daddy - florida derby
Any Given Saturday - Bluegrass
Cowtown Cat - Illinois Derby
Sam P - Santa Anita Derby
Deadly Dealer - Arkansas Derby

The Bluegrass will be loaded, but the timing (3 weeks out) travel logistics (easy van ride to Churchill after) and the forgiving polytrack surface are all too important to pass up for horses who are already in the derby with earnings and just need a final tune up.

[Linny]

Ags is not in the top 30 right now but it looks like about 12-14 of those on the list are not considered Derby candidates right now. AGS could probably get in with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. I suppose the Lexington is a last ditch chance but running that often is not Pletcher's style.
I know AGS was second in the KY Jockey Club and the TB Derby, how much $$$ does he have? I'm guessing about $70k in graded earnings...

[cakes44]

He's at about $102,000.

[Linny]

Cakes, I think you are right, the TB derby was $300k so he made $60k there. The 2yo race where he was second was about $200k, I think.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

AGS could run in the coolmore lexington I imagine, but the 2 weeks is obviously the issue. He needs graded earnings, although if we don't see any more upsets, I think he gets in regardless.
Pletcher's runners:
CQ - Wood
Scat Daddy - florida derby
Any Given Saturday - Bluegrass
Cowtown Cat - Illinois Derby
Sam P - Santa Anita Derby
Deadly Dealer - Arkansas Derby

The Bluegrass will be loaded, but the timing (3 weeks out) travel logistics (easy van ride to Churchill after) and the forgiving polytrack surface are all too important to pass up for horses who are already in the derby with earnings and just need a final tune up.

You can always identify who is playing TVG Fantasy and who isn't.