Bluegrass or Florida Derby

[Seattleallstar]

With that probables list for the Bluegrass looks more Ky Derby Jr vs Fl Derby which has one legit Derby/non-sprinter horse in Scat Daddy and possibly Stormello

[Seattleallstar]

Id expect Hard Spun, and Street Sense to run in the Arkansas Derby

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Id expect Hard Spun, and Street Sense to run in the Arkansas Derby

Really, why do you say that? Carl has always been committed to the Blue Grass since the winter. Why would be change now?

[pointman]

Hard Spun is obviously not going to the Arkansas Derby after his loss in the Southwest where his trainer clearly said that he did not like the Oaklawn track. I have heard he is going to the Bluegrass, not sure if that has changed, but pretty sure he is not going to Oaklawn.

[Thunder Gulch]

They said after the Lane's End that Hard Spun was going to the Bluegrass. After his performance on the poly at Turfway, they have a good shot at that one.

[IrishofNDMan]

I think Hard Spun will be onto the Bluegrass, where we will really be able to see what he is all about. On another note, Scat Daddy will win the Florida Derby. Stormello jumps out to the lead (like Sharp Humor last year) and Scat Daddy manages to get to him down the stretch in a battle (like Barbaro did last year). This is how I'd like it to set up atleast.

[slotdirt]

I was thinking with a horse like Any Given Saturday that desperately needs graded earnings they'd try the Coolmore Lexington.

[pointman]

I think Hard Spun will be in the Bluegrass. I think it is unfortunate he will run on polytrack again since it is hard to tell at this point whether the Lanes End was a performance that can come on dirt or if Hard Spun really liked the poly. Don't know that question can be answered in the Bluegrass even though it is a different type of polytrack.

[pointman]

Does anyone know if anyone decent is going to the Arkansas Derby? I am really surprised that Pletcher would not send Any Given Saturday to Arkansas instead of putting him in the Bluegrass.

[Bogey]

To answer the question: Mark me down for the Florida Derby, the only G1 $1million prep race - even with the Preakness and Belmont (G1 & $1mil) - Plus it looks to be a stellar field.

[smuthg]

I wasn't on the old Derby Trail website, but was there this sort of discussion/debate when Rock Hard Ten got left out of the Derby? Talk about a horse that was clearly one of the Top 5 of his generation... I'm sure his connections didn't think there was anyway that he would not get the graded earnings in the SA Derby, but he didn't (DQ'ed if I remember correctly).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by smuthg

I wasn't on the old Derby Trail website, but was there this sort of discussion/debate when Rock Hard Ten got left out of the Derby? Talk about a horse that was clearly one of the Top 5 of his generation... I'm sure his connections didn't think there was anyway that he would not get the graded earnings in the SA Derby, but he didn't (DQ'ed if I remember correctly).

there is at least one horse each year who blooms in the weeks leading up to the derby, but hasn't got the earnings to get in. it happens...but the rules are in place for a reason, 20 horses imo is far too many, they have to draw a line somewhere. if AGS doesn't make the cut, he doesn't make the cut. and horses have been entered and then withdrawn before, leaving the field short--bob baffert got a lot of criticism for doing that a few years ago....so really all you can do is suggest an AE list...

as for RHT--he was probably better off missing the race.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as for RHT--he was probably better off missing the race.

Back in 1972, Charlie Whittingham had a huge T.V. Lark colt for Bwamazon Farm that everybody thought would be a really hot classic contender. Out of Princequillo mare, bred to run all day. He had run second in the San Felipe H and then was second again in the Santa Anita Derby, closing late. Then he went up to Golden Gate and handily won the California Derby (then a G2-type prep, 2 weeks out from the Derby, like the Wood). But Charlie didn't take him to Kentucky. Said he was too immature, not ready for that kind of test. Didn't run in any of the classics. But by midsummer, he was in shape to win the Hollywood Gold Cup over older horses, the only 3yo other than Round Table to do so, in 1:58:1, which equalled the world record. Quack went on to win G1s at 4 and 5, despite the sort of iffy ankles huge horses often have.

We need a few more trainers like Charlie, willing to tell the owner "Yes, you have a good colt, but if I run him in the Derby before he's ready for that kind of race, he'll be done, and I don't do that to horses."