Early HOY predictions

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

[Thunder Gulch]

Flower Alley if he stays healthy.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

I think Bernardini is going to the Jim Dandy. SM will fight it out with Brother Derek in the Haskell.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I think Bernardini is going to the Jim Dandy. SM will fight it out with Brother Derek in the Haskell.

Well, I think Darley's original plans had Discreet Cat going Dwyer then Haskell and Bernardini going Jim Dandy then Travers, obviously keeping them apart as long as possible...but, now that Discreet Cat has defected for the Dwyer and the Haskell looks much in doubt at this poin t for that colt, I seriously think that it would be hard for Darley to turn down the invite for the $1 million Grade I at the Shore over a Gr. II at the Spa....money is not of object with those people - obviously - but still, now that Discreet Cat is out they may take a second look at the Haskell for Bernardini....I would....BTW, Sweetnorthernsaint is Haskell bound too...

[Slewbopper]

Being a grandson of Slew, I love the Lava Man. It is true that he really hasn't beaten anyone, but who else has? Certainly not Flower Alley. Something went wrong with him in that insane Pac classic last summer. I don't think I agree with keeping him on the left coast to run in the HGC and Pac C, both races at 1 1/4 on the dirt. I would love to see him in the Arlington Million and then the Woodward before the Classic. LM, if he stays healthy will be around for a while. It is easy to root for a guy like him.

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.

I see Bernardini as the possible upsetter of these two. His Preakness was super impressive and Albertrani did the right thing skipping the Belmont, an obsolete race that is really only of great importance to a horse going for the TC. It has taken its toll in the last few years. Smarty never ran again. Birdstone ran once, and Alex never ran again. Empire Maker ran once, and Funny has won one meaningful race in the last three years.

[Gander]

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.


My sentiments exactly!

[Buffymommy]

This is a really tough thing to ask or predict right now in the middle of the year. Right now I would say Barbaro is HOY. THAT IS AS OF RIGHT NOW 6/27/06. Undefeated and much publicity, no doubt in my mind that he would get it.

Bernardini maybe IF he wins a few more against his elders this year because his Preakness was a very nice race. Flower Alley is one I would like to see more of before I cast him as HOY. As of right now I would put Lava Man above him ONLY IN THAT Lava Man has done more this year.

That is just my opinion though.

[Cajungator26]

How about Brother Derek? Wonder if he can get back in the game and win some major ones?

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

How about Brother Derek? Wonder if he can get back in the game and win some major ones?

I like this horse and I would like to see him run again and win some. I think he is better than his triple crown run showed.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

I don't think Bernardini will run in the Haskell, but your point is well taken, Cunningham. To be honest, I'm getting very frustrated because it seems as if Barbaro has the 3 year old Eclipse wrapped up before even half the season is over. Writers like Steve Haskin (who loves Bernardini) are saying that Bernardini will have to win the Travers (agreed), a big fall race (Jockey Club?) AND the Classic in order to win the Eclipse. IMO, that's unfair and I don't get it. If Bernardini wins the Travers and a race against older horses and say, runs well in the Classic, how has his year not been better than Barbaro? Right now, Barbaro has won the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and KY Derby. Bernardini has won the Preakness and Withers. The Withers/Holy Bull cancel each other out, so Bernardini is one grade 1 behind Barbaro. The Travers is more prestigious by far than the Florida Derby, and races against older horses speak for themselves. I agree that Barbaro has the edge now (Bernardini still has to do it on the track, no matter how confident I am in his ability), but I think it would be a travesty for Bernardini (for example -but same applies to, say, Jazil) to lose the Eclipse because of sentiment. The voters are human, though, and they love Barbaro.

[2Hot4TV]

Gander, I recall someone saying he didn't care who was in the race that a Grade 1 is a Grade 1........................ So I guess that a Grade 1 really isn't the same if it's in California and the purse money doesn't mean squat. Well if they are really that good they can come and get the easy Lava Man as they prep for the BCC. Right now it's LAVA MAN. Flower Alley needs to come out running and winning, again and again and again to win HOY. If all goes well he will have some Lava Man along the way. May the best horse win.

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Gander, I recall someone saying he didn't care who was in the race that a Grade 1 is a Grade 1........................ So I guess that a Grade 1 really isn't the same if it's in California and the purse money doesn't mean squat. Well if they are really that good they can come and get the easy Lava Man as they prep for the BCC. Right now it's LAVA MAN. Flower Alley needs to come out running and winning, again and again and again to win HOY. If all goes well he will have some Lava Man along the way. May the best horse win.

Sounds good Holy Bull, glad you found your way over from ESPN, I thought you were still sore over USC being embarassed like they were, glad you have gotten over it and moved back into society again.

Originally Posted by Betsy

I don't think Bernardini will run in the Haskell, but your point is well taken, Cunningham. To be honest, I'm getting very frustrated because it seems as if Barbaro has the 3 year old Eclipse wrapped up before even half the season is over. Writers like Steve Haskin (who loves Bernardini) are saying that Bernardini will have to win the Travers (agreed), a big fall race (Jockey Club?) AND the Classic in order to win the Eclipse. IMO, that's unfair and I don't get it. If Bernardini wins the Travers and a race against older horses and say, runs well in the Classic, how has his year not been better than Barbaro? Right now, Barbaro has won the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and KY Derby. Bernardini has won the Preakness and Withers. The Withers/Holy Bull cancel each other out, so Bernardini is one grade 1 behind Barbaro. The Travers is more prestigious by far than the Florida Derby, and races against older horses speak for themselves. I agree that Barbaro has the edge now (Bernardini still has to do it on the track, no matter how confident I am in his ability), but I think it would be a travesty for Bernardini (for example -but same applies to, say, Jazil) to lose the Eclipse because of sentiment. The voters are human, though, and they love Barbaro.

Nice post...I couldn't agree more...I have never had a vote in the Eclipse ballots but know dumb media that has and have been APPAULED at some of their votes and agendas behind their votes at times......it can be a joke....there have been MANY Eclipse winners in the past few years that were the wrong horses/people IMO...

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Nice post...I couldn't agree more...I have never had a vote in the Eclipse ballots but know dumb media that has and have been APPAULED at some of their votes and agendas behind their votes at times......it can be a joke....there have been MANY Eclipse winners in the past few years that were the wrong horses/people IMO...

Thanks, Cunningham. I know I'm biased towards Bernardini because I personally love him. At this point, I've decided that it's too early to get aggravated. If Bernardini performs as expected, he'll win many big races and will get the credit he deserves; that's really all I can ask for. He's still not getting (on other boards) the respect he should get even for his Preakness (he only won because Brother Derek and SNS were injured/tired/over the top), so I can't wait until Saratoga (or the Haskell, wherever he goes) and he gets to prove himself all over again.

[Gander]

I cant think of too much opposition Flower Alley will have to contend with in the Whitney. Maybe Suave, Perfect Drift, Seek Gold, possibly Buzzard Bay.

Its his home track and he'll be 3/5 and he'll probably romp like he did in last year's gerbil infested Jim Dandy.

What will that prove? Why is this anymore important than Lava Man beating a couple of past grade 1 winners on the turf, who werent at the top of their fomr cycle? Because its a race rich with tradition? Please. What does the history of the Whitney have to do with identifying this year's HOY?

We will see who comes and takes on Flower Alley in the Whitney. Then we will see how Lava Man does out West.

Originally Posted by Gander

I cant think of too much opposition Flower Alley will have to contend with in the Whitney. Maybe Suave, Perfect Drift, Seek Gold, possibly Buzzard Bay.

Its his home track and he'll be 3/5 and he'll probably romp like he did in last year's gerbil infested Jim Dandy.

What will that prove? Why is this anymore important than Lava Man beating a couple of past grade 1 winners on the turf, who werent at the top of their fomr cycle? Because its a race rich with tradition? Please. What does the history of the Whitney have to do with identifying this year's HOY?

We will see who comes and takes on Flower Alley in the Whitney. Then we will see how Lava Man does out West.

Tim I really don't see how you can dismiss teh prestige of a race like the WHitney. Some years the Derby isnt filled with stars(lets take this year) but the winner still gets the lead in the divisonal race. And what does his price have to do with it? You really lost me there. If hes bet down because he appears to be that good I dont see how it factors in whatsoever. And if some horses duck the spot in order to avoid facing him, is this not a compliment for the respect that they have for him? Lava Man will be facing noone out there who is even vaguely considered a Grade One horse. Not that i would do any different if I were them though. Its a money game and running in huge purse races against no competition in your own backyard is 100% the thing to do. But until he comes east for a showdown at the end of the year to face Flower Alley and Bernadini, hes not going to get the accolades required. I guess thats why we have the Breeders Cup. So until November this will be up in the air.

[Gander]

I agree Mike. Until November this is all pretty much moot, if Flower Alley wins and Lava Man wins (their respected races). Both trainers have excellent paths plotted to get them to November facing very little in the way of true grade 1 horses.

Lets just hope we get them both to the BC healthy. Being a fan of Lava Man, I wouldnt even care if Flower Alley spanked him. Just to see that the matchup came to fruition would be great.