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#1
06-26-2006, 05:36 PM
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Right you are.
I remember when Tom Voss had a good Saratoga meeting a few years back ... and everyone went gaga over his horses the next year ... ... and lost their shirts. Saratoga is especially hard to replicate from year-to-year ... because it's a national meeting ... attracting horses from all over the country ... not just the usual local suspects. Hard to handicap ... and even harder to dominate. 
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#2
06-26-2006, 05:54 PM
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I disagree. I think Mazur does a great job with his products.
There's tons of invaluable info annually in his stats and analysis which yield wiseguy plays several times a meet. I got Gyarmati the last Wednesday thanks to it 3-4 years ago (Goodtime Charlie? 33-1?).. MADE the entire meet a profitable one with just the single play. Well over $2K after being down $400-500 on Day 31.. Also changed my karma as I proceeded to clobber three big ones the next day.. Ended the meet up about $3,800-4,000. Certainly worth the $25 Jim Mazur charges for the book.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
06-26-2006, 06:16 PM
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I could argue both sides of this issue, I think, very well.
I don't disagree that using the past can be a very slippery slope in a lot of cases and if you are familiar with a circuit, and the participants, I don't necessarily think the Mazur books are for you. I am certainly NOT a handicapper that relies on trainer patterns, as I think they lead you in the wrong direction more often than not, and prefer " simple " handicapping. On the other hand, when I first went to Florida in the mid 90s to play, and was totally unfamiliar with the trainers, I used Jim's books quite a bit and feel they were a great help. They can teach the uninformed a solid outline, at least, on certain trainers as to who often comes out firing and who may well use one start....etc. However, those are problematic concepts for Saratoga, where pretty much everyone would at least like to come out firing.
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#4
06-26-2006, 07:03 PM
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I use Mazur's stuff for Calder. I am to some extent a trainer pattern type of handicapper which I think is useful for a track with a very long season (Calder, Philly, etc). I don't think it's as good as it could be but it is somewhat helpful and $25 is not a ton of money. I find it more useful to spot bad chalk vs locating a long winner, but that's just as valuable. For the top short meets like keeneland, Saratoga, etc... I'm not sure I'd find it as useful. It's just another arrow in the quiver.
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