my derby top 10..

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

who are you? pointgiven1985???

what ?

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Chelokee is the classic wise guy horse, ran a good race and now he can win the derby ? no way.... take 75-1 i wouldnt take 5000-1 on him, he might not even make the starting gate

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Chelokee is the classic wise guy horse, ran a good race and now he can win the derby ? no way.... take 75-1 i wouldnt take 5000-1 on him, he might not even make the starting gate

I might take 5000-1

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by jjf1031

I might take 5000-1

thats good im sure alot of ppl would, i wouldnt put a penny on a horse that might not even make the race

[cakes44]

Are there any posts that you don't respond to?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

Chelokee is the classic wise guy horse, ran a good race and now he can win the derby ? no way.... take 75-1 i wouldnt take 5000-1 on him, he might not even make the starting gate

I would be willing to have been completely wrong all spring about who was going to win the Derby if it meant Chelokee could win, just for the raw satisfaction I would get out of you calling him not even worth 5000-1 odds.

Dub's got a new favorite Derby horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

[Mortimer]

would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

-----------------


I have a short envelope for you back from Master David.





I hope you will stay with me because I will make it up next week.

[SniperSB23]

1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Ketchikan
4. Great Hunter
5. Adore the Gold
6. Notional
7. Nobiz Like Shobiz
8. Circular Quay
9. Stormello
10. Curlin

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

Seriously, if it's that long of a shot, someone should be booking these things through email and making a whole lot of cash.

I'd put money on it just to get 5000-1 on a horse that many people consider among the top 20 Derby contenders. I'd take 5000-1 on Storm in May right now.

I think Great Hunter is thr real thing: He has a pedigree that says Derby, seasoning others are lacking(even off just two starts in 2007 before he goes to the big one), experience at Churchill, a running style that will work, and loads of talent. I think Doug O'Neill and Corey Nakatani have their first Derby winner.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

That got me thinking. How much money would you have to have available for betting horses (or devoted to horses and other roughly similar investments), to justify what would be considered a "correct" bet on Chelokee of $1000 at 5000-1 odds?

I think Ed Thorp showed that the correct "Kelly" bet was Bankroll*%ADV/odds. ("%ADV" is percent advantage, your expected return on the bet) For a $1000 bet, then, 1000=Bankroll*%ADV/5000. Therefore, Bankroll*%ADV would have to equal 5 million.

If fair odds on Chelokee are as "low" as 250-1, then %ADV is (5000/250) -1 = 19. (or 1900%) Therefore, you'd need a 5000000/19 = $263,000 bankroll to justify that $1000 bet at 5000-1.

But if fair odds on Chelokee are even lower, say 75-1, then a 77K bankroll would be more than enough.

And yes, I'm sure by now you are thinking that "no, there is no end to this idiocy!"

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Actually there is no real limit to how much 5000-1 you could take because you could easily turn around and give people 500-1 on him for whatever you bet....or more.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually there is no real limit to how much 5000-1 you could take because you could easily turn around and give people 500-1 on him for whatever you bet....or more.

Excellent point! And if you give me the 500-1, I can turn around and find someone who would love 250-1. My goodness, that 5000-1 could support a small economy!

--Dunbar

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That got me thinking. How much money would you have to have available for betting horses (or devoted to horses and other roughly similar investments), to justify what would be considered a "correct" bet on Chelokee of $1000 at 5000-1 odds?

I think Ed Thorp showed that the correct "Kelly" bet was Bankroll*%ADV/odds. ("%ADV" is percent advantage, your expected return on the bet) For a $1000 bet, then, 1000=Bankroll*%ADV/5000. Therefore, Bankroll*%ADV would have to equal 5 million.

If fair odds on Chelokee are as "low" as 250-1, then %ADV is (5000/250) -1 = 19. (or 1900%) Therefore, you'd need a 5000000/19 = $263,000 bankroll to justify that $1000 bet at 5000-1.

But if fair odds on Chelokee are even lower, say 75-1, then a 77K bankroll would be more than enough.

And yes, I'm sure by now you are thinking that "no, there is no end to this idiocy!"

--Dunbar

listen put all the numbers up you want, would you put that kind of money on a horse that more then likely wont even make the race ?

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

I have a myriad of problems, no doubt, but one of them is not a failure to understand odds. Sadly I now know that you don't understand odds....hopefully I won't learn any more of your problems in the future.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I would be willing to have been completely wrong all spring about who was going to win the Derby if it meant Chelokee could win, just for the raw satisfaction I would get out of you calling him not even worth 5000-1 odds.

Dub's got a new favorite Derby horse.

Dub's also going to get a year older tomorrow..........