Circular Quay the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

its all over but the cryin now with Ravel out. Nice, to see JR and Pletcher finally get that Triple Crown race win.

CQ will not even beat Nobiz in The Wood

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

CQ will not even beat Nobiz in The Wood

That wouldn't prevent him from winning the Derby though.....

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

That wouldn't prevent him from winning the Derby though.....

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough, i know his pedigree says he can go long and he'd be a classic race type horse, but i think he'd be a devestating miler type with his 1 big run, he could point to races such as the met mile, the carter and the new breeders cup dirt mile

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough

Well, guess they can't all have as great a shot in the Derby as Bob and John, right?

You're probably on to something here...

[zippyneedsawin]

For those interested, I just found out that CQ's horsehats.. hat.. will be available in a few weeks. BTW, should I pre-order one for you?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

For those interested, I just found out that CQ's horsehats.. hat.. will be available in a few weeks. BTW, should I pre-order one for you?

No, but I want a Scat Daddy one. Seriously.

I think this will be the year of Doug O'Neill; I think he has very good chances with Great Hunter and Cobalt Blue. He has two other chances as well.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough, i know his pedigree says he can go long and he'd be a classic race type horse, but i think he'd be a devestating miler type with his 1 big run, he could point to races such as the met mile, the carter and the new breeders cup dirt mile

You may be right about finding trouble, but saying he'll be out of the superfecta is pretty bold, especially considering his record. Throw out the Risen Star when the jockey was thrown right in front of him, and he's never finished worse than 2nd. I think he's almost a lock to hit the board.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

You may be right about finding trouble, but saying he'll be out of the superfecta is pretty bold, especially considering his record. Throw out the Risen Star when the jockey was thrown right in front of him, and he's never finished worse than 2nd. I think he's almost a lock to hit the board.

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

[sumitas]

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I think that is already changing and will continue to do so as the trend to send frontrunning sprinters to the Derby if they can get the graded earnings continues. If it keeps up as it is I think it will become extremely difficult to win the Derby if you are within 3 lengths of the speed duel at first call. Even Barbaro was four lengths back at the first call.

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

They are not. Dude you need serious help.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

As Cardus posted on an earlier thread:

Originally Posted by Cardus

Eleven of the last 25 Derby winners were closers. Here is the list:

Giacomo
Monarchos
Fusaichi Pegasus
Real Quiet
Grindstone
Sea Hero
Lil E. Tee
Strike The Gold
Unbridled
Ferdinand
Gato Del Sol

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

Monarchos was at the rear, Charismatic was well back, Grindstone....I know what you are saying and I prefer somebody in the second tier, but it's not that rare. It's less likely that somebody wires the field.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I can think of a few besides Unbridled. Strike the Gold, Grindstone, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol and Pleasant Colony were all closers who won the Derby,

As for CQ, if he doesn't win, it won't be because his style, IMO. I don't think he's Pletcher's best 3YO, let alone the nations best.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

Actually, a horse fell down in front of him in the Risen Star.

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

And how far is long prior to the Risen Star, Most of the horses on the trail were all doing 6f to a mile, not saying some didn't stretch to 1 1/16, but there are more that were in sprints than not i believe. btw, not predicting anything here, winners, supers...nuttin'!!

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

you mean LA derby,, right? I think did pretty well in his other attempts at going long before his LA derby win. He did finish 2nd in both the KY futurity (on poly) and the Juvy (2+ lengths in front of every horse but street sense) have his races set up for him? yes. but the derby usually has a fast pace, doesn't it? could he find trouble in the derby because of his style? absolutely. but, imo, i haven't seen a reason why he can't win that race based on his past performances. that's why the derby trail is great, we find different reasons to like different horses along the way.