Ravel, How good is he ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'll agree too. And it's only going to get worse when grass horses start winning "dirt" races on a regular.

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

My apologies for turning this into an interview, but I've always been curious about handicapping for a living (not that I'm quitting my day job). How much time do you spend a day capping and does it ever feel like "another day at the office" where you just don't have interest to do it?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

You a pirate?

I hear you on not wanting to risk the money. Definitely seems like it makes sense though to do the capping and find the angles even if it means 50 hours of work without placing a wager.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You a pirate?

I hear you on not wanting to risk the money. Definitely seems like it makes sense though to do the capping and find the angles even if it means 50 hours of work without placing a wager.

*Shaking head*

You guys are seriously funny tonight. LOL LOL

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh, I'll place wagers, just not relatively significant ones.

Work is work. I find a lot of the racing work fascinating at times, and drudgery at other times, but you sort of develop a routine and try to stick to it. I'm a little burnt right now. I did both NY and Gulfstream since the beginning of the year, and with the amount of work I do, that's a lot. So, right now I feel a little crispy. But, if you're winning especially, it's OK.

To tell you the truth, I've been doing it for so long, even when I was working downtown, that it seems unnatural not to do the work.

I liked the pirate joke.