Ravel, How good is he ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's the best 3yo turf horse and will be running on the polytrack at Keeneland. Does that tell you all you need to know?

" The best 3YO turf horse " is not exactly a ringing endorsement at this point...not that you in any way suggested it was.


If he wins the Bluegrass it will immediately establish it as the most meaningless prep in history ( and, as we have both posted the same things throughout this thread, you probably will agree ).

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" The best 3YO turf horse " is not exactly a ringing endorsement at this point...not that you in any way suggested it was.


If he wins the Bluegrass it will immediately establish it as the most meaningless prep in history ( and, as we have both posted the same things throughout this thread, you probably will agree ).

I'll agree too. And it's only going to get worse when grass horses start winning "dirt" races on a regular.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'll agree too. And it's only going to get worse when grass horses start winning "dirt" races on a regular.

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'll agree too. And it's only going to get worse when grass horses start winning "dirt" races on a regular.

biancone has very nice 3 yr turf horse.... the name is, well i forgot the name but he ran Nov, 25 on that stars of tommorw card that churchill ran, he actually beat a pletcher horse and it might have been Twilight Meteor.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

biancone has very nice 3 yr turf horse.... the name is, well i forgot the name but he ran Nov, 25 on that stars of tommorw card that churchill ran, he actually beat a pletcher horse and it might have been Twilight Meteor.

That's a wealth of information.

Come on, if you are going to throw up a post like that, at least look the race up and throw the actual names in there.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That's a wealth of information.

Come on, if you are going to throw up a post like that, at least look the race up and throw the actual names in there.

No way man! I totally remember the horse he is talking about. I think he MIGHT have been sort-of brownish in color. He also had 4 legs. I think.
I can't remember the name of the jock.......but he wasn't a very big guy I can tell you that.
Know who he means now?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

No way man! I totally remember the horse he is talking about. I think he MIGHT have been sort-of brownish in color. He also had 4 legs. I think.
I can't remember the name of the jock.......but he wasn't a very big guy I can tell you that.
Know who he means now?

I saw that one! I liked him too. I think he will be one to keep an eye on later in the season.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I saw that one! I liked him too. I think he will be one to keep an eye on later in the season.

How did he move on the track compared to his 2yr old sale video?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

No way man! I totally remember the horse he is talking about. I think he MIGHT have been sort-of brownish in color. He also had 4 legs. I think.
I can't remember the name of the jock.......but he wasn't a very big guy I can tell you that.
Know who he means now?

Oh yeah! And he had a tiny little saddle and one of those leather-thingies on his head...it's as clear as can be now!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" The best 3YO turf horse " is not exactly a ringing endorsement at this point...not that you in any way suggested it was.


If he wins the Bluegrass it will immediately establish it as the most meaningless prep in history ( and, as we have both posted the same things throughout this thread, you probably will agree ).

I was actually looking through the brisnet PPs of all the contenders to see which had high turf pedigree figures because of how little there is to the 3yo turf division right now. The couple that jumped out to me that haven't run on the turf yet were Hard Spun and Boogie Boggs. You might have to let Nick know there is a lot of money to be won on the turf this summer with Boogie Boggs (although I'm sure he is aware).

If Twilight Meteor and Belgravia were to run well enough in the Lane's End/Blue Grass to get the graded earnings we could have two horses making their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby. So yeah, the Blue Grass being on poly is not only becoming a meaningless Derby prep but is also making capping extremely difficult for the Derby. Fortunately we have Kentuckyrosesinmay on here to let us know how the horses move over the dirt so we'll be all set.

Also, wasn't the Blue Grass already the most meaningless Derby prep? Don't horses who ran poorly in it previously have much better success in the Derby than the ones who won it?