Curlin v. Cobalt Blue

[slotdirt]

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

Agree. Above posts are right that Cobalt needs to be tested and going to Illinois gives him a full field but wont SA Derby be a bit more competitive also? LIquidity, Ravel, King of the Roxy, Air COmmander? Maybe not full field but definately a test for Cobalt if he were to stay.

Curlin on the other hand will need more than three starts to be Derby winner. While impressive Saturday he truly did not beat much

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by merasmag

why does he havta skip the derby to win the preakness????????? i've seen no triple crown winner talk yet (surprisingly )

Probably because he would come in well rested and prepared to beat the tired Kentucky Derby winner (whatever horse that may be.) If he runs in the derby, he's not going to be well rested.

[slotdirt]

So this was Curlin's what, second career start? Give him another before the Derby, and he'll come into the Derby with three starts under his belt. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in a horse that comes into the starting gate in a 20 horse field with such little seasoning.

I can't find my stats, but I don't think a horse has won the Derby with fewer than four or five career starts since like 100 years ago.

[hockey2315]

Alot of derby trends are changing, though. . . Look @ dosage, the three prep philosophy, and the fact that Barbaro won last year with 5 weeks between starts. . . An exceptional horse or perfect set-up will overcome these trends. . .

[slotdirt]

The three prep angle is still in effect. The five week layoff angle was broken last year. Dosage is hooey, so I don't count that for anything. Given that no dual qualifier has won the Derby since like '97.

[Cajungator26]

The dual qualifiers are bolded. (For those interested.) There are some not on this list, but you get the general idea.

Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey

Adore the Gold Michael Gorham 2.20 Cornelio Velasquez

Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher 2.67 * Rafael Bejarano

Bwana Bull Jerry Hollendorfer 3.40 Russell Baze

Circular Quay Todd Pletcher 2.08 * Garrett Gomez

Cowtown Cat Todd Pletcher 2.60 Ramon Dominguez

E Z Warrior Bob Baffert 3.00 David Flores

Great Hunter Doug O'Neill 3.00 * Corey Nakatani

Hard Spun Larry Jones 2.67 Mario Pino

Ketchikan Al Stall Jr. 2.11 Larry Melancon

King of the Roxy Todd Pletcher 3.00 * Edgar Prado

Liquidity Doug O'Neill 1.86 * Corey Nakatani

Nobiz Like Shobiz Barclay Tagg 1.44 * Cornelio Velasquez

Notional Doug O'Neill 2.33 Corey Nakatani

Officer Rocket Robert Holthus 3.00 Calvin Borel

Ravel Todd Pletcher 3.00 Garrett Gomez

Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher 2.47 * John Velazquez

Stormello Bill Currin 2.67 * Kent Desormeaux

Street Sense Carl Nafzger 2.14 * Calvin Borel

Summer Doldrums Richard Violette Jr. 3.67 Mike Luzzi

Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders 2.27 Stewart Elliott

Xchanger Mark Shuman 3.00 Joe Bravo

Zanjero Steve Asmussen 3.50 Garrett Gomez