Who would you contact about this cross?

We try so hard to put all these fancy numbers on something that is so incredibly complex. I realize there is lots of data to play with. This is much harder than a 6 month weather forecast. Tonights forecast dark, with scattered light in the morning. Unless a comet changes the earth's rotation.

It just never gets to the meat of the matter.

We have sequenced the entire TB genome (Cornell took the lead) and we have not identified ONE GENE that has any significance in determing how well a horse will run on a track.

Heck the fact we refer to breeding in terms like bloodstock, bloodlines indicates so much. The genetic material is passed on in the blood... how wrong so many people were.

1. Every sperm cell a single male produces is different genetically from every other sperm cell that same male produces.
2. Every egg cell a female produces is different genetically from every other egg cell that same female produces.

Combine that with the tremendous effect that the environment plays in the regulation of gene expression at so many times in the development of a fertilized egg to a mature animal ready to run and you have a crapshoot. I realize we must make some generalizations, we must have something to grasp. But the sums of money paid for crapshoots amazes me. It is astounding.

So I guess everybody can take a shot at it, and it does certainly appear to interest a whole bunch of folks. Its fun. But so inexact.

Do bloodstock agents and breeders take genetics classes? Just so they can tell paying customers what they hope to, and what they cannot predict? Genetic counselors that advise couples on potential problems in offspring have to have PhD's in statistical genetic analysis. They of course have to give out sound statistical and probability numbers or they get the crap sued out of them.

I personally would look at a female that showed great promise early in running, but got injured in a freak accident (nothing to do with unsoundness). A female that lost races due to bad racing luck (no graded wins) and got injured in the manner described, but is still able to procreate. I would look for the same in a male. The two animals that I found would be analyzed for genetic similarities in ancestors and I would hope they would be very different. And I would keep trying this method. If I had the time.

[paisjpq]

Once a stallion reaches a certain age they have established a reputation for crossing well on certain lines of mares and from that point on there are few who are willing to step outside the line and try something new...both AP Indy and Rahy are old enough for this to be true. Although the Rahy-Seattle Slew nick gets an A rating from Werk the actual result of mating an AP Indy mare to Rahy and a Rahy Mare to AP Indy (though somewhat limited in sample size) has failed to produce much...so why keep trying when one has a much chance of success crossing on the lines that continually produce runners.

That said...Pedigree Ann can give you a much better analysis than I ever could...you should contact her.