Curlin v. Cobalt Blue

[almar3t]

Cobalt Blue is not following in Brother Derek's footsteps evidently:


"Cobalt Blue likely will have one more prep race, and Griffin indicated a few days ago his colt would run in the Illinois Derby (gr. II) at Hawthorne Park on April 7."

Wisely connections are going for field experience and not making the mistake of beating up on 5 horses field for all their derby preps.

almar3t

Originally Posted by almar3t

Cobalt Blue is not following in Brother Derek's footsteps evidently:


"Cobalt Blue likely will have one more prep race, and Griffin indicated a few days ago his colt would run in the Illinois Derby (gr. II) at Hawthorne Park on April 7."

Wisely connections are going for field experience and not making the mistake of beating up on 5 horses field for all their derby preps.

almar3t

I also applaud this move. And I think the next move would be to skip the K. Derby.
But here is where Merv showtime comes in. If Cobalt Blue faces a full decent, but not stellar field in the Illinois, because others like Stormello, Ravel, Liquidity (I still fear this one) will run in the Santa Anita, and the Wood will take some Eastern horses along with the Florida Derby the week before, and Cobalt wins the Illinois... then Merv is going to the Derby.

I would go to the Preakness.

Both 1 1/16 miles:

Curlin 1:44.76
Cobalt Blue 1:42.6

I know Santa Anita is faster than Oaklawn, I have not compared similar races on the same tracks. But damn over 2 seconds, very diff. tracks.

[hockey2315]

What speed fig did Cobalt Blue run? Sorry if this is posted in another thread and I'm not seeing it. . .

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Both 1 1/16 miles:

Curlin 1:44.76
Cobalt Blue 1:42.6

I know Santa Anita is faster than Oaklawn, I have not compared similar races on the same tracks. But damn over 2 seconds, very diff. tracks.

Ark runs much slower than SA. You can't compare them like that.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ark runs much slower than SA. You can't compare them like that.

I know this as I stated. But over 2 seconds Randall? I did not realize the tracks were that different.

[slotdirt]

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

Agree. Above posts are right that Cobalt needs to be tested and going to Illinois gives him a full field but wont SA Derby be a bit more competitive also? LIquidity, Ravel, King of the Roxy, Air COmmander? Maybe not full field but definately a test for Cobalt if he were to stay.

Curlin on the other hand will need more than three starts to be Derby winner. While impressive Saturday he truly did not beat much

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by merasmag

why does he havta skip the derby to win the preakness????????? i've seen no triple crown winner talk yet (surprisingly )

Probably because he would come in well rested and prepared to beat the tired Kentucky Derby winner (whatever horse that may be.) If he runs in the derby, he's not going to be well rested.

[slotdirt]

So this was Curlin's what, second career start? Give him another before the Derby, and he'll come into the Derby with three starts under his belt. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in a horse that comes into the starting gate in a 20 horse field with such little seasoning.

I can't find my stats, but I don't think a horse has won the Derby with fewer than four or five career starts since like 100 years ago.

[hockey2315]

Alot of derby trends are changing, though. . . Look @ dosage, the three prep philosophy, and the fact that Barbaro won last year with 5 weeks between starts. . . An exceptional horse or perfect set-up will overcome these trends. . .