Lava Man to Dubai

[Danzig]

altho many think he should stay where he's been so successful--why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.
besides, you don't know if you don't try.


good luck in dubai lava man! we'll be rooting for ya!

c'mon, you know you'll pull for him.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.

While I still think that sending him to Dubai is a terrible idea, Danzig188 does make a good point here. The Dubai trip might not ruin him. Remember when they sent him to Japan? He ran his usual terrible race when shipped (finished 11th I think) but he bounced back and won the Sunshine Millions two months after that race, and then followed that up with six straight stakes wins that year including 4 G1s. He definitely hates shipping, but it does not really seem to affect his performance once he returns to SoCal.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

altho many think he should stay where he's been so successful--why not take the chance? yeah, he's winless when shipping, but he bounces right back when he gets home.
besides, you don't know if you don't try.


good luck in dubai lava man! we'll be rooting for ya!

c'mon, you know you'll pull for him.

ditto, ditto, and ditto!

--Dunbar

[horseofcourse]

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

You are assuming that if Lava Man runs his best his chances are the same in Dubai as they are in the Woodford Reserve. I don't agree with that assumption at all. Lava Man could ship to Dubai, run his best and still get his butt kicked. If he runs his best in the Woodford Reserve he would have a shot at winning and should at least run top three.

[PPerfectfan]

And its free to go. Lets not forget that! Take a free trip to Dubai to run for a shot at 5 Million. Hey, he isnt a good shipper, why not take the shot for 5 Mil, instead of 500k for the chance he just might hold his form on the grass.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

And its free to go. Lets not forget that! Take a free trip to Dubai to run for a shot at 5 Million. Hey, he isnt a good shipper, why not take the shot for 5 Mil, instead of 500k for the chance he just might hold his form on the grass.

And that is the single biggest reason that a lot of these people are going. They are willing to sacrifice their horse for several months for the free trip in first class accomodations. Just don't buy any of their BS that what they are doing is in the best interest of the horse.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And that is the single biggest reason that a lot of these people are going. They are willing to sacrifice their horse for several months for the free trip in first class accomodations. Just don't buy any of their BS that what they are doing is in the best interest of the horse.

i take the opposite view, i prefer not to think that they're being so mercenary about it. i don't know that racing a horse should be viewed as sacrificing him. he doesn't do poorly after shipping, other than actual race day performance (thus far). he was off a few months after shipping to japan and back, but he seemed a tired horse before even going.
he's a racehorse, he's supposed to race. i think really they should be applauded for taking this guy world wide. so few don't when they could, when they should.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You are assuming that if Lava Man runs his best his chances are the same in Dubai as they are in the Woodford Reserve. I don't agree with that assumption at all. Lava Man could ship to Dubai, run his best and still get his butt kicked. If he runs his best in the Woodford Reserve he would have a shot at winning and should at least run top three.

The way he's shipped, I don't know if he'd have a chance in the Woodford Reserve either. And if that's the case go higher. Personally I don't know if I'd ship him...but the owners have done well by this horse and want to do it. He's won them nearly 5 million dollars. I can't blame them. As I said...I see both sides. He's got this one nagging question of running outside Cal, and in my opinion they might as well try it. I wouldn't ship him at all other than the BC at the end of the year.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either??

The bigger question is....why ship him at all? It isn't like he only runs well at Fairmount Park so his connections are stuck if they want to make $$ and get him some big G1 and G2 wins.
He runs well at Santa Anita, Hollywood, and Del Mar. There are plenty of good races THERE for him to run in.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I hope he does well and returns to Cal in one piece. Everything else is moot. If you're going to ship...go for the big prize. Why ship to Ky for a 500,000 puse Or Il for the Arlington Million when he doesn't ship well there either?? I can see both sides of this argument.

Amen. I don't know how it can be any more clear. People are saying he can't ship......then advocating shipping to Arlington or Churchill. That doesn't make any sense at all. If they are right and the shipping itself is not the problem but the surfaces have been and they think shipping and running on the grass will be the solution, I'd rather find out that I'm right in a $5 million race rather than a $500k or $1 million one. If they are wrong and it's just the shipping period, then it wouldn't matter if it's Dubai, Chicago, Kentucky, or Japan. Like in spades, u play to win. If u don't play to win, don't sit at the table.

The problem with saying "why not just be happy dominating the division in California" is that they've been there and done that. Over and over again. It's plain boring now. And anyone that's got any kind of competitive streak in them wants to take on a bigger challenge and see where they fit. If Lava Man were to somehow pull this off, he immediately goes on the list among the greatest we've seen in the past 25 years. If they don't even try, he stays on the list as a California wonder that couldn't ever win outside the state.

I don't understand the thinking that running in Dubai has to knock a horse out for a very long period. Didn't Invasor run in Dubai last year and return in the Pimlico Special less than two months later? How did that work out for him?

[pointman]

What I don't get, and I caution this with my limited knowledge, is if the shipping is such a problem, why don't they ship him in 5 or 6 weeks before a race? Can someone with more knowledge than I answer that?

[brockguy]

Lava Man to the 9f Duty Free I believe.. may be the easier race but will still be a tough field......

[Pedigree Ann]

I still think it is a humidity/breathing problem for Lava Man. SoCal is semi-arid. Florida, Japan, New York, and Kentucky are continental or tropical climates with higher humidity. Dubai will be the test of this theory, since it also has a drier climate. Looking forward to it. Go Lava Dude.