Circular Quay: Just a Deep Closer or More?

[cmorioles]

The pace, in my opinion, was smoking hot in the LA Derby. CQ almost had to win by default.

[tycharles01]

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

[Sightseek]

He got a 102 for his efforts the other day. Ketchikan a 99.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He got a 102 for his efforts the other day. Ketchikan a 99.

Thanks for posting this...

Ketchikan is a hell of a nice colt... if they can get him to calm down a bit, he's definitely one to watch.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

The class of the 3yo crop may not be the need to lead types, but you can bet that there will be a couple of early speed types that pull wirejobs in the G3 preps that make for a hot pace in the Derby. If that happens, CQ is a player.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

In all honesty I don't get the title of this thread. Of course he's a closer. He's always back in the pack. He's been 1st or 2nd every time he's stepped on the track other than when he got stopped cold in the Risen Star and I am quite certain he finishes 1st or 2nd there as well if ont for that incident. He is a very good 3 yr old closer...end of story. How good is the only debate and is he good enough to win the Derby. Of course he benefits from a fast pace as all closers do. HE always gives a good effort...even in the Risen Star it was a top notch deed gathering himself fro stopping and finishing 5th.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cardus

And, CQ is not a plodder. He has the turn of foot that is necessary to win the Derby, too.

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

I don't follow.

He's just another Pletcher horse. I don't see how anyone can root for this guy. It's like rooting for Wal-Mart and/or Halliburton.

Originally Posted by Cardus

....Looking at the last 25 years, closers are just as likely to win the Derby as are stalkers.

I'm not defending CQ as much as I am illustrating that deep closers can win the Derby.

I"d like to see your count, because the last time we did this on another forum we got about twice the number of closers as stalkers counting from 1980 to 2005. I think we got 20 closers/10 stalkers/6 front runners.

I dont know where we stuck pressers perhaps in w/ front runners, dont recall.

SINce then Ive tried to count from 1960-present and the ratio does not quite hold up, but it's still somethign like: 50%-30%-20% (closer/stalker/frontrunner).

So I love it when people say these closers will not get through the traffic. But they do, more than half the time, one of them comes in first...

Would be interested if you have made a similar count.

OH Cardus...Sorry I did not see you had made your count earlier in the thread. I just posted a little too quickly.

Anyhow, from the last discussion we had on another forum (could be PaceAdvantage, or maybe one of the long dead ones..) we had a few more to add to your list.

Going back to 1980, add the following:

Charismatic; Thunder Gulch; ALysheba and Pleasant Colony.

I recall Charismatic and I have TG and Aly. on tape but if this is not right let me know. I"m always interested in historical comparisons and what not so I'd like to hear what you think.

Charismatic I think was a closer, I recall seeing him on the backstretch of some race the derby I guess just picking off horses, from that race I recall he made his move before the turn, which sort of complicates the analysis. At the BEL he was chasing the speedy Vision and Verse, was it???

Pleasant Colony is mentioned by one poster as being a deep closer so..

Anyhow, let me know what you think, this is always an interesting topic.

Oh btw: we did not figure out what Swale was but I will go look that up now...

OKay, looks like Thunder Gulch is a presser from the PPs, I see. Looks pretty clear on that.

Alysheba I got to think is a closer he made a move prior to the turn which puts him closer when they get to the stretch but he's coming from far back so closer...

Pl. Colony, same he makes that move on the back stretch, he was way back.

Swale. More of E/P, I guess from the derby chart. He pressed the pace and pulled away as the got to the top of the stretch. Sounds a lot like Barbaro, huh? Dont recall seeing this race...

In the 1960s, I count about 6 closers, 2 stalkers (NoDance/Venetian Way) and 2 presser/need to lead (KauaiKing/Lucky Debonair).

So it seems we are approaching a ratio of 50/30/20 or so..


BTW: In thefirst post, I did not mean to imply that I was disagreeig w/ Cardus overall take on closers, I was merely quatifying the numbers. It sounds like I am disagreeing with his overall point.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The pace, in my opinion, was smoking hot in the LA Derby. CQ almost had to win by default.

I'm not a big fan of this horse, and agree that the race had to fall apart--- which makes the 2nd place horse's performance all the more impressive.

Yet, I certainly thought that Zanjero and certainly Birdbirdistheword would get a jump on CQ. In other words, they'd move before CQ did.
Zanjero, up to the race, had been moving too soon, IMO, and I was interested in seeing what would happen if they timed his move a bit better,
and Bird...was moving with Street Sense (and thus, ahead of CQ) in the Keeneland stake.

As it shaped up, CQ did all the middle running and the other 2 could only try to pick up the pieces late ---it was all they could do to get by Liquidity, and never threatened the top 2.

And this is troubling, because CQ usually lets all the others run first and then simply picks up the pieces. This was an improved effort, IMO.

[tycharles01]

He could win the derby as could about 10 other horses right now

Just depends on who is in. If there are some straight speed horses a closer has a great chance however if is just your normal stalk whoever is out front, there is no way that a closer could come throught all that traffic to win

Remember guys the Derby is not a Gr 3 with 7 horses entered and a closer is someone who come threw at the end. Kinda hard to go from 15 back threw all those horses

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

He could win the derby as could about 10 other horses right now

Just depends on who is in. If there are some straight speed horses a closer has a great chance however if is just your normal stalk whoever is out front, there is no way that a closer could come throught all that traffic to win

Remember guys the Derby is not a Gr 3 with 7 horses entered and a closer is someone who come threw at the end. Kinda hard to go from 15 back threw all those horses

Yes but as Cardus pointed out in an earlier post, a lot of other closers have done it. I am not saying CQ will....but it is not exactly impossible.

[Merlinsky]

All I know is people go on about traffic in the Derby and how so-and-so had bad racing luck but I've always thought closers that win the race are the ones that make their own luck. You don't only have a jockey knowing what hole to go through but you have a horse willing to do it, even if it's the tightest squeeze he's ever seen in his life. Maybe he bounces off the rail or cuts between horses and wants to win so badly he won't take no for an answer when a lesser horse might've said 'hey it's been a hard race, I'm calling it a day'. I think it can be done and masterful to watch.

Strike the Gold was my first Derby pick and first winner so I have a certain affection for a horse that sparks comparisons to the ol' boy--sure I was a total sucker for the sob story they told on Alydar during the Derby coverage but I liked the look of StG in and of himself.