Proof of BC "Golden Rail"?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Andy, again, I am a historian. I know what history says about numbers like that. I'm not going with a gut feeling here...And yes money is the name of the game. And trust me, I bet plenty when I have an opinion. I completely agree that picking races without betting on them makes no sense....But betting against a horse like Street Sense for the rest of his career will make you money...Playing against SNS in that GP race was the right thing to do. Leaving him out of every trifecta was the right thing to do....Did I win on the race? Nope, had the tri wrong...But it doesn't change the fact that when you take stands, the money has a higher likelihood of coming your way.

How will you make money betting against him? Removing one horse from the equation doesn't guarantee big paydays. If you don't get the rest of it right you may make nothing even if you were correct on Street Sense. Also if you are correct and he never comes close to that level again, the public will make corrections and the value of your opinion will get diluted over time.

The time to strike will be right away, his next race. Will you be going all in on Any Given Saturday? I'm curious how you're going to clean up on this "stand".

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

How will you make money betting against him? Removing one horse from the equation doesn't guarantee big paydays. If you don't get the rest of it right you may make nothing even if you were correct on Street Sense. Also if you are correct and he never comes close to that level again, the public will make corrections and the value of your opinion will get diluted over time.

The time to strike will be right away, his next race. Will you be going all in on Any Given Saturday? I'm curious how you're going to clean up on this "stand".

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

Wilco was the second favorite in a small field. His odds weren't that much different than several of the other lesser threats. I left him out of my pick three and was delighted that the four beat the seven.

Like I said, eliminating a horse helps, but you still must figure out who to wager on.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Wilco was the second favorite in a small field. His odds weren't that much different than several of the other lesser threats. I left him out of my pick three and was delighted that the four beat the seven.

Like I said, eliminating a horse helps, but you still must figure out who to wager on.

It's ridiculous how awful Wilko looked. I know he's never been a world beater, but heavens...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

It's ridiculous how awful Wilko looked. I know he's never been a world beater, but heavens...

When you say he looked awful, do you mean his appearance on the track or how he ran? I didn't get a look at him in the post parade but his effort looked normal to me and pretty much exactly what one would expect.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Jim, is that the same public that made Wilko 3-1 today? They don't change their minds, they are lemmings...And this is a value game. Take shots at faves or go home is my motto.

I wish there was a " public " these days....and I wish whoever they are were lemmings. Unfortunately, the pools are pretty fair, and the opportunities, the real opportunities, are far from easy to find.

That being said....WILKO was 3-1? Did John Candlin have an entry in the race?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wish there was a " public " these days....and I wish whoever they are were lemmings. ?

aint that the truth....what is the % of the pool that is the public, 10%?