Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

You just want to cheer for favorites to run up the track....

Either way, as long as the sample size is long enough (a whole meet), you should get a decent perspective on who is right....

Personally, if I understand this, Randall is saying that betting place is more worthwhile then playing an exacta, Grits is saying play the bomb with the chalk.

SPEAKING IN Natural odds, just plain Natural odds (10 horse race, each horse has a 10% change of winning) Randall wins this argument in a landside BUT I would have to break out some crazy algerbra to figure out the odds (using 30% as favorite winning as a national average)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

A statistic sample in the 100s takes care of that.

[Scav]

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Scav

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

And isn't that a very good thing! (I did call his avatar "a little undulating tart" and he cast her off like a spent match.) LOLOL

[2MinsToPost]

No offense, but does this thread not target those whom play the tote board and odds with a couple minutes to post, the "numbers players" who love to dash to the teller and yell out their crazy exacta boxes, keys etc?

I like to find my horses and play them win and place no matter the odds anymore

Pick 3's the same, as SCAVS WOULD SAY - FULL TILT

Tilt is great, and I love it on Friday nights

Dang, I gotta work till 9pm this Friday but am OFF ALL DAY ON SATURDAY!

God bless MEADOWLANDS HARNESS RACING on Friday and Saturday nights!

[blackthroatedwind]

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

[randallscott35]

Actually let me think about this. We both would get the win end so maybe that is right...Now I'm confused.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

[blackthroatedwind]

To further what I just said.....each particular horse is an example...i.e. the horse wins you get X for the place bet and lose the exacta and any horse that places you get X for place and Y for the exacta where Y can be zero.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

If the sample sizes are equal, it's better to go forward. Less chance to introduce a bias about starting point.

btw, randall, I really like the way you've spelled out exactly what you are doing, including the sample size!

I'm going to bet on the place bet being more profitable. I've missed where this whole discussion took place (so to speak), but I don't see a betting bias that would overcome the generally bigger takeout for exactas.

--Dunbar