Closest you have come to the big score...

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Completely disagree. When a longshot finishes second and you get nothing, what have you gotten for being right about a horse outrunning his odds? Nothing.

Not a problem, to disagree makes the world go 'round, but if you put that longshot in an exacta with the winner, then you've got something, honey. A fine exacta. Again, forget place betting, put the choice in your exacta.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

Not a problem, to disagree makes the world go 'round, but if you put that longshot in an exacta with the winner, then you've got something, honey. A fine exacta. Again, forget place betting, put the choice in your exacta.

Honey? Are you a chick?...SO you are saying I should magically find the winner and put him on top and get the exacta? Or wheel my longshot in second as a hedge? Where am I?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Honey? Are you a chick?...SO you are saying I should magically find the winner and put him on top and get the exacta? Or wheel my longshot in second as a hedge? Where am I?

Seriously because I think I'm fairly good at finding a longshot horse but getting him with the winner is a whole different story....

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i totally agree with randall, i look for the prices in a race 4-1 or higher... you need to go place, my basic wager is $50wp and i think i do ok

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i think its crazy if you like a horse at a solid price not to go win place, especially if its a large field

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Honey? Are you a chick?...SO you are saying I should magically find the winner and put him on top and get the exacta? Or wheel my longshot in second as a hedge? Where am I?

Yeah, I'm a chick, you think some guy's gonna come on here with the signature "G.R.I.T.S.": (noun) Girl Raised In The South. (Though, now I look and the server crash removed it, and I've not replaced it yet.)

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying, wheel your longshot to run second. Better yet box the two, and forget it. If you win, you've got a nice exacta.

Beyond that, I'm not sure where you are. Hopefully this explains a bit.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Grits

Yeah, I'm a chick, you think some guy's gonna come on here with the signature "G.R.I.T.S.": (noun) Girl Raised In The South. (Though, now I look and the server crash removed it, and I've not replaced it yet.)

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying, wheel your longshot to run second. Better yet box the two, and forget it. If you win, you've got a nice exacta.

Beyond that, I'm not sure where you are. Hopefully this explains a bit.

yes that might work for you, but some ppl are win place bettors, and some want to get pair a little when there longshot runs a good second i have made alot of money having a 10-1 shot run second and having a $50 wp wager on the horse, when the horse returens $10 and change for second i win $150 instead of losing 100

[ELA]

I've heard both schools of thought -- on betting place (and show for that matter). I've also heard similar thoughts when it comes to exacta wheels and back-wheels.

I don't know if there is a right or wrong answer, but I've used place and show as a "hedge" against my win. I've collected on the place and show wagers and I've lost both of them along with my win bet. I think the exacta discussion is a bit circular -- pick a horse on top, key up on 1 or 2 exactas, have your horse win, but not hit the exacta. I am sure these #'s come out all over the board, but if I can't really feel as confident on my 1 or two key exactas, then I think it makes sense to look for value (especially if I feel the favorite exacta, and the second horse isn't offering value, is probable not to be there, etc.). I certainly don't want to lose as much or near as much on the gimmicks as I've won on the win bet (although those will be low priced horses, #'s, etc.).

Any thoughts from the pro's, serious players, etc.? Thank you.

[randallscott35]

Eric, the school of thought is take advantage of the pools. Wait till the end to bet. If there is enought value in a large field in the show pool with a vulnerable fave, I have no problem betting to show either...But win/place on price horses is a fine way to go. I can't stomach 20-1 shots I bet finishing second and getting nothing. Simply not worth it.

[GPK]

this past BC...singled Dreaming Of Anna, used Street Sense, singled Oujia Board. Was alive to 5 horses in the Sprint...and Thors Echo was not 1 of them. Will pays were anywhere from $1,500 to $10,000 if memory serves me right.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by GPK

this past BC...singled Dreaming Of Anna, used Street Sense, singled Oujia Board. Was alive to 5 horses in the Sprint...and Thors Echo was not 1 of them. Will pays were anywhere from $1,500 to $10,000 if memory serves me right.

yep, we were calling UNited for plane reservations until we figured out we needed the rail horse.....

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by GPK

this past BC...singled Dreaming Of Anna, used Street Sense, singled Oujia Board. Was alive to 5 horses in the Sprint...and Thors Echo was not 1 of them. Will pays were anywhere from $1,500 to $10,000 if memory serves me right.

This past BC as well...Distaff....this was best bet I never placed....I remember saying on this board that Round Pond, Happy Ticket, and Balletto are locks if all are 100% and trips are ok...well I never thought there would be 2 breakdowns, but I don't think that would have mattered. Well long story short, my pc had crashed, so I was going to have to go to the otb to bet, but I also had to juggle that with our annual Breeder's Cup get together we have. I ended up getting wrapped up in something around the house and didn't go to make my bets....$1 tri paid $4,400 and change. Kev called me as soon as the race was over and I can't recall what I said but it was something that I'm sure Steve would send me to the DT penalty box if I repeated....

[ELA]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Eric, the school of thought is take advantage of the pools. Wait till the end to bet. If there is enought value in a large field in the show pool with a vulnerable fave, I have no problem betting to show either...But win/place on price horses is a fine way to go. I can't stomach 20-1 shots I bet finishing second and getting nothing. Simply not worth it.

That is exactly what my "risk management" mindset automatically reverts to, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Grits

Not a problem, to disagree makes the world go 'round, but if you put that longshot in an exacta with the winner, then you've got something, honey. A fine exacta. Again, forget place betting, put the choice in your exacta.

You're absolutely right. Place betting is a mistake. You use the price horse in exactas, and while you may not always cash, when you do it much more than makes up for any lost winnings from place bets.

There should be a bumper sticker that says " Real Horseplayers don't bet to Place ".

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're absolutely right. Place betting is a mistake. You use the price horse in exactas, and while you may not always cash, when you do it much more than makes up for any lost winnings from place bets.

There should be a bumper sticker that says " Real Horseplayers don't bet to Place ".

They don't bet to place, and they surely don't bet to show. (The elderly blue hair ladies at the track bet to show.)

The bet, in this instance, as quoted I believe was $50w/p on one's longshot. Let's say, you bet your longshot in a straight exacta to run second behind the chalk. $100.00 straight exacta bet, not changing the amount of money wagered. This is difficult for many, but one has a really nice exacta many times. In the case of your $50 place money coming in, its paltry next to the exacta, and one doesn't have to hit many of these to make up for their longshot running second.

[philcski]

Last year's Ky Oaks day.

Got to CD with about 8 MTP for the 5th with the intention of playing the P6, got shut out because the teller was incompetent and had to start over and they opened the gates while we were trying again.

Needless to say... it would have been the only winning ticket for about $180k.

Thankfully, all wasn't lost... the P4 still paid a healthy $7.5k.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Grits

They don't bet to place, and they surely don't bet to show. (The elderly blue hair ladies at the track bet to show.)

The bet, in this instance, as quoted I believe was $50w/p on one's longshot. Let's say, you bet your longshot in a straight exacta to run second behind the chalk. $100.00 straight exacta bet, not changing the amount of money wagered. This is difficult for many, but one has a really nice exacta many times. In the case of your $50 place money coming in, its paltry next to the exacta, and one doesn't have to hit many of these to make up for their longshot running second.

Pardon my naivete, but you know, the entire concept of not betting place as opposed to playing the exacta makes sense, conceptually, to me. However, often, for me, not having as much conviction and not being as confident in the exacta selection causes me to make the place bet instead of the exacta. Simpy put, I might be more confident in being able to pick a horse for place (one correct selection vis a vis the bet, who can run first or second) vs. betting the exacta (requiring me to select two correct selections vis a vis the bet, where they have to finish 1-2). I am not sure if that's correct or makes sense to most of the serious players here, but that is kind of my gut feeling.

Does that make any sense or am I being a whimp here?

Also, doesn't the relative size of the bet, risk/reward also play a role? Meaning if I am looking at $100 place (maybe as a hedge), am I also looking at a $100 exacta? Not really, right?

Thanks for the advice.

Eric

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ELA

Pardon my naivete, but you know, the entire concept of not betting place as opposed to playing the exacta makes sense, conceptually, to me. However, often, for me, not having as much conviction and not being as confident in the exacta selection causes me to make the place bet instead of the exacta. Simpy put, I might be more confident in being able to pick a horse for place (one correct selection vis a vis the bet, who can run first or second) vs. betting the exacta (requiring me to select two correct selections vis a vis the bet, where they have to finish 1-2). I am not sure if that's correct or makes sense to most of the serious players here, but that is kind of my gut feeling.

Does that make any sense or am I being a whimp here?

Also, doesn't the relative size of the bet, risk/reward also play a role? Meaning if I am looking at $100 place (maybe as a hedge), am I also looking at a $100 exacta? Not really, right?

Thanks for the advice.

Eric

ELA, I'm sorry I didn't come back to your question sooner.

You're right this is not a bet for everyone. Nor is it a matter of being a wimp. This, to the casual player, takes a whole lotta guts. On the other hand, for the pro, (and I'm not) this is common play, as they don't bet to place, ever. In this case, no, you don't make a place bet at all. Instead, you play, YOUR horse, straight, underneath the postime public choice for $100.

There are many occasions that this bet is not feasible, as there is no clear cut public choice at postime.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

ELA, I'm sorry I didn't come back to your question sooner.

You're right this is not a bet for everyone. Nor is it a matter of being a wimp. This, to the casual player, takes a whole lotta guts. On the other hand, for the pro, (and I'm not) this is common play, as they don't bet to place, ever. In this case, no, you don't make a place bet at all. Instead, you play, YOUR horse, straight, underneath the postime public choice for $100.

There are many occasions that this bet is not feasible, as there is no clear cut public choice at postime.

This is nuts. The whole basic problem with your strategy is that you assume the favorite will win if your longshot runs second. Huh, you are betting a lonshot b/c you think the favorite is vulnerable. So your favorite runs off the board, boosting the place price and you get nothing to show for it b/c that's the only horse you used on top. That is not how to use an exacta as a hedge.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

This is nuts. The whole basic problem with your strategy is that you assume the favorite will win if your longshot runs second. Huh, you are betting a lonshot b/c you think the favorite is vulnerable. So your favorite runs off the board, boosting the place price and you get nothing to show for it b/c that's the only horse you used on top. That is not how to use an exacta as a hedge.

Don't assume... you know what they say about assume "it makes an ass out of U and ME."

There's no whole basic problem with my strategy. Possibly go back and read what I wrote to ELA.

I am believing the chalk will outrun the longshot, as that is usually the result, day in, day out. That is why I put my longshot choice under the chalk on a straight exacta bet.

I've not said anything about the favorite being vulnerable. Not a word. And to box, as I stated as an option, that is not suitable to betting them straight, for $100.

The discussion was about place betting, and regarding longshot play.