Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-03-2007, 07:14 PM
plahotnyu
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Yes, one always looks at Big trainers, on Big days. That's a given.
But I don't think any one trainer has, or ever has had, a record that can touch what he is currently hitting at. And has, for quite some time.

Do I think he's a training genius. Not a chance.

'Nuff said.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-03-2007, 07:21 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

At leat Albertus Maximus beat Pavarotti, thank GOD!

Last edited by Linny : 03-04-2007 at 03:09 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-03-2007, 07:21 PM
ArlJim78 ArlJim78 is offline
Newmarket
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 6,549
Default

Its not like he is some kind of one day wonder though.
He sets purse money records year after year.
His horses have been stepping up on big days for quite some time.
That has to be part of the equation. Ignore his entries at your own peril.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-03-2007, 07:43 PM
-BT- -BT- is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: 60613
Posts: 2,622
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Its not like he is some kind of one day wonder though.
He sets purse money records year after year.
His horses have been stepping up on big days for quite some time.
That has to be part of the equation. Ignore his entries at your own peril.

Having John Velazquez in the irons doesn't hurt either
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 03-03-2007, 07:51 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Swale84
Having John Velazquez in the irons doesn't hurt either
Not on freaking A.P. Arrow.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-04-2007, 03:46 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
Not on freaking A.P. Arrow.
A.P. Arrow was as washed as I've ever seen on a horse... colt was beyond "worked up."
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-04-2007, 04:15 PM
PSH's Avatar
PSH PSH is offline
Hollywood Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Mill Valley, CA
Posts: 914
Default Big Trainers Big Percentages

Gets back to the question i have been struggling for these past few years. Are these high percentage trainers (Pletcher, Frankel, Dutrows, etc.) high percentage trainers because: a) they simply get the best horses b) are doing something more than their lower trainer percentage counterparts - extra vitamins, better water, or whatever else that they can afford from their higher day rates or, c) they are not playing on a level playing field (CHEATING!)

or is it a combination of all three depending on who we are talking about....

How does a mid-teen percentage trainer like Contessa all of the sudden turn into a higher percentage trainer? Is it simply the winter track at Aqueduct and a good part of his competition is gone?

How does a high percentage trainer like Pletcher all of the sudden go cold like he did at Saratoga in 2005 after the first few days? There was a rumor that Mrs. Whitney had a security guard placed at his barn... Can not believe that one....

Just makes one wonder...

PSH
__________________
"Everybody's honest, when they can afford to be."
Benny Binion
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 03-04-2007, 06:04 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSH
Gets back to the question i have been struggling for these past few years. Are these high percentage trainers (Pletcher, Frankel, Dutrows, etc.) high percentage trainers because: a) they simply get the best horses b) are doing something more than their lower trainer percentage counterparts - extra vitamins, better water, or whatever else that they can afford from their higher day rates or, c) they are not playing on a level playing field (CHEATING!)

or is it a combination of all three depending on who we are talking about....

How does a mid-teen percentage trainer like Contessa all of the sudden turn into a higher percentage trainer? Is it simply the winter track at Aqueduct and a good part of his competition is gone?

How does a high percentage trainer like Pletcher all of the sudden go cold like he did at Saratoga in 2005 after the first few days? There was a rumor that Mrs. Whitney had a security guard placed at his barn... Can not believe that one....

Just makes one wonder...

PSH
I think that all of your variables are a factor. First off they have so many horses and owners that they only have to race horses when everything is perfect. If you have 5 horses for the same condition you just run the one that gives you the best chance of winning. That ability can make you very strong as a trainer. Same as a big claiming trainer who is likely to have more than one horse for each price. He can drop them and raise them with impunity because he already has a replacement if they get claimed.
Guys like Pletcher and Dutrow are spending a whole lot more on vets than most trainers because they dont care if the owners bitch or take the horses. That is not to say that all or any extra vet work will help. Slow horses are slow horses and the fact is that no vet work or vitamins will help. Believe me if you could "vet work" your way to the winners circle, we would all do it. Dont forget that these guys like Pletcher, Dutrow, etc more often than not have one of the best horses in the race, they rarely run real longshots which will help your %'s.
The fact that nothing ever changes when these guys get 30-60 day suspensions says a lot. If you havea lot of really good horses and a good program you will win, period.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 03-04-2007, 04:40 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
A.P. Arrow was as washed as I've ever seen on a horse... colt was beyond "worked up."
And he still would've won with ease without that ride.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 03-04-2007, 05:46 PM
golfer's Avatar
golfer golfer is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,608
Default

It's nice to be back.. this thread might have 200 posts by now if not for the server problem. I'm going by my own evaluation, not statistics, but I don't believe the Sciametta firsters at Gulf were winning at a high percentage. Yesterday he finishes 1/2 with 2 firsters.. and who still thinks uncoupling is a good thing? With 2 or 3 in a race, we basically have to guess which one runs (I guessed wrong in the Hutchison).

Steve, I saw your post on the Thorograph board, what say you on this?
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.