Sir Greeley...no 2nd this weekend

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The likelihood that the Carter is as weak as last year is next to nil.

The Ohio bred that won the Bay Shore went one-full second faster than the Carter winner, on the same card, last year.

Last year's Carter was such an eye-sore, that it wouldn't take much to be better than last years edition.

Smokey Stover is running in No Cal next, and retaining Gryder. With the $5 million purse for the Golden Shaeen in Dubai, that race is really bound to hurt the Carter....though last year, Cal Breds ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in it.

Perhaps something will emerge soon enough---perhaps something like a Bright One, who's flashed impressive raw talent before and is working very strongly for his return. I have a feeling the Carter and Met will probably both be sub-par as well.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Ohio bred that won the Bay Shore went one-full second faster than the Carter winner, on the same card, last year.

I guess if you actually said who the horse was, Too Much Bling, your point would have carried no weight?

Everyone knows he was a more talented horse than the Sir Greeley's of the world when he was right. Ohio bred or not.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess if you actually said who the horse was, Too Much Bling, your point would have carried no weight?

You know I always do those things....I'm silly like that.

But yeah, it's not like TMB was any overwhelmingly strong early season 3-year-old sprinter.


There's a horse (Fabulous Strike) who got dusted at Tampa Downs last winter who could played a huge roll in those races. He also went to Penn National to break his maiden, where he was united with the Todd Beattie hop and got real good real fast. He still hasn't had an offical recorded workout this year though.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You know I always do those things....I'm silly like that.

But yeah, it's not like TMB was any overwhelmingly strong early season 3-year-old sprinter.


There's a horse (Fabulous Strike) who got dusted at Tampa Downs last winter who could played a huge roll in those races. He also went to Penn National to break his maiden, where he was united with the Todd Beattie hop and got real good real fast. He still hasn't had an offical recorded workout this year though.

I know about Fabulous Strike....and in fact bet him when he won his first allowance at Belmont and when he was fourth in the Riva Ridge. Last I heard he was being rested and was supposed to return soon. 7F may be a stretch but he too could be pointing for the Carter. His mid 110s at Mountaineer may not transfer to a school zone but he's a very fast horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

His last Beyer was a 119...and his race two back could have been in the low 120's if not cut loose, Which means he somehow ran the fastest figure in a crop that included Bernardini, Discreet Cat, and Barbaro.

But yeah, he did get incredibly sweet trips in those two races, over a real funky track both times. I have a hunch that trainers hop will work anywhere, I'm just not so sure how authentic those last two races really were

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His last Beyer was a 119...and his race two back could have been in the low 120's if not cut loose, Which means he somehow ran the fastest figure in a crop that included Bernardini, Discreet Cat, and Barbaro.

But yeah, he did get incredibly sweet trips in those two races, over a real funky track both times. I have a hunch that trainers hop will work anywhere, I'm just not so sure how authentic those last two races really were

I see way too many big ( or relatively big ) figs from Mountaineer that never seem to translate to other tracks ( it's like Delaware on speed ). However, that horse ran some legitimately fast races last year. I think at 6F he may be genuinely good. I am skeptical about him going further. He looked strong as they headed for home in the Woody Stephens ( used to be the Riva Ridge ) and came up empty in the last furlong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Smokey Stover is running in No Cal next, and retaining Gryder. With the $5 million purse for the Golden Shaeen in Dubai, that race is really bound to hurt the Carter....though last year, Cal Breds ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in it.

Perhaps something will emerge soon enough---perhaps something like a Bright One, who's flashed impressive raw talent before and is working very strongly for his return. I have a feeling the Carter and Met will probably both be sub-par as well.

Bright One is running in the Richter Scale...right?

Smokey Stover could easily come for the Carter. Very good chance for him to get a Grade 1.

So, based on that, in a three horse field Sir Greeley was doing no better than filling out the tri.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Bright One is running in the Richter Scale...right?

Smokey Stover could easily come for the Carter. Very good chance for him to get a Grade 1.

So, based on that, in a three horse field Sir Greeley was doing no better than filling out the tri.

Smokey Stover is a nice horse but he had a pretty good setup when Bordonaro and Proud Tower Too killed each other w/suicidal fractions. He's another one who has to prove to me he can with away from California (i.e. race day Bute).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by JJP

Smokey Stover is a nice horse but he had a pretty good setup when Bordonaro and Proud Tower Too killed each other w/suicidal fractions. He's another one who has to prove to me he can with away from California (i.e. race day Bute).

Weird....most pace people I know had that as a slow paced race. Everybodys pace figures certainly indicates that. And Proud Tower Too and Bordonaro never hooked each other in that race.

Considering how well Cal based sprinters historically perform when they ship East...that is certainly no worry.

I'm not sure he'll run in the Carter though, as he is a gelding, so the Grade 1 win doesn't mean anything. Which is why he passed the Malibu.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by JJP

Smokey Stover is a nice horse but he had a pretty good setup when Bordonaro and Proud Tower Too killed each other w/suicidal fractions. He's another one who has to prove to me he can with away from California (i.e. race day Bute).

I agree a bit with DrugS that his win was a little more solid than you do but I would be more concerned that nobody else gained an inch of ground and essentially Smokey Stover was right on the pace.

But, you're right, he has to win outside of California, but he MIGHT be pretty good. Sir Greeley, the original subject of this thread, is an established horse. An OK one....but not as good as Smokey Stover might be. If I told you right now that one of them will hit the board in this year's BC sprint, Smokey Stover would be 100-1 favorite over Sir Greeley assuming he hadn't gotten hurt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree a bit with DrugS that his win was a little more solid than you do but I would be more concerned that nobody else gained an inch of ground and essentially Smokey Stover was right on the pace.

He sat three or four lengths off a pair of tigers, who both had Grade 1 sprint wins over the track, and looped around them with alarming ease.

I think none of the closers gained an inch of ground because the horses behind the top three were vastly inferior to the top 3.

If any horse out of the race could be knocked for the fact that no one gained much ground---it would be Proud Tower Too, who was loose on an unchallenged lead.

He, came back to just miss to Latent Heat in the Grade 2 San Carlos, while running unquestionably the better race.

I don't see why SS needs to prove he can win in the East. It's not like Idiot Proof and Shaggy Mane had any great troubles recently. I think his form will improve markedly if shipped East.

Aaron Gryder is bound to screw that horse up though.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't see why SS needs to prove he can win in the East. It's not like Idiot Proof and Shaggy Mane had any great troubles recently. I think his form will improve markedly if shipped East.

He has to prove he can IF he runs here...and if he does I think he will do well. But, he still has to do it.

The two horses you mentioned took advantage of a speed bias. Doesn't IEAH own one of them?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That was not a speed biased track that day IMO. Not even close

Many horses ran well racing wide and off the pace---including the Matz bum that looped around Most Distinugished.

The four horses involved in the pace battle in the six furlong maiden race all came back to run markedly better as well

[Linny]

If he stays in one piece, I'd think that Chatain might be a nice middle distance horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

If he stays in one piece, I'd think that Chatain might be a nice middle distance horse.

Yeah, I would guess he is probably pointing for both the Carter and Met.