Did Mario Pino cause Hard Spuns loss??

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

even with your different subject, my answer is the same, no. Mario did not play any role in Hard Spuns bad performance because it wasn't a bad performance. It was a bad performance only in terms of the overblown expectations that existed before the race.

By any objective measure that I have looked at the performance was nearly the same as the last one.

What is it that makes you say that this is a wrong opinion? You said you don't rely on Beyers? Do you use other figures? How do you know it was a bad performance?

HS tripped a 101 speed fig in the Bris, no one close has done that, so yes, overall speed figs, not Beyer figs. The horse that won was the worst horse in the numbers games. If your horse is a runner, and not a rater, you don't try to rate your horse, it's a disaster in the making. This horse got off a step slow, and did not try to grab the rail with his speed. His 2 turn win at K, was sizzle time, not rate time.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by MisterB

HS tripped a 101 speed fig in the Bris, no one close has done that, so yes, overall speed figs, not Beyer figs. The horse that won was the worst horse in the numbers games. If your horse is a runner, and not a rater, you don't try to rate your horse, it's a disaster in the making. This horse got off a step slow, and did not try to grab the rail with his speed. His 2 turn win at K, was sizzle time, not rate time.

His Bris number for the Southwest was a 98 which is statistically insignificant from his previous 101. The Beyer numbers were the same.

Also, HS had the one race with a 101. Why assume that was the norm and not his previous high of 95? Most people thought the 101 was a mere stepping stone and he would keep moving forward. Sometimes the aberration IS the 101 and the horse regresses to the previous levels. What happened is that he didn't improve his number and others did especially Teuflesberg.

What you fail to take into account is that these are developing three year olds. Just because no one had run a 101 number before doesn't mean that they won't move forward and do so now.

You are looking backward and saying that he regressed because of the way the PP's looked on that day, instead of looking at how the other horses ran.
If you look at HS's past performances before the Southwest and ignore his 101 figure, he looks quite average in that race.

[ELA]

No.

Eric

[smartyalex]

Da Hoss, help us out with the Merasmag quote.....what does it mean?

[The Bid]

The biggest reason Hard Spun lost is because he wasnt as fast as the 3 who ran ahead of him. Any pinhead would have given him the same trip, and any pinhead would have gotten the same result, not winning.

[SniperSB23]

According to Randy Moss on Wire 2 Wire the trainer wanted the horse to rate and had been working hard in the morning on getting him to rate in this race. Unless you think Randy Moss doesn't know anything about the going ons at Oaklawn that pretty much absolves Pino.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

According to Randy Moss on Wire 2 Wire the trainer wanted the horse to rate and had been working hard in the morning on getting him to rate in this race. Unless you think Randy Moss doesn't know anything about the going ons at Oaklawn that pretty much absolves Pino.

Exactly.

And when you watch the race, and look at the fractions of both that race, and the others on the card at the same distance, it's pretty obvious to jump to that conclusion...without even hearing it reported by anyone.