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#1
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But I understand what you are saying about the trainers comments. Just dont think they really had a chance to get him to the rail without going thru horses, especially with the poor start. The winner ran well but you are not going to find a much better trip, cant take that away from him but not sold on exactly how good he his. Officer Rocket looks like he could like the mile and a quarter. |
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#2
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Officer Rocket managed to run a decent race on the outside in the stretch.
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#3
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The point of preps is to prep. No you shouldn't scratch. There will be bad post positions in the Derby as well. What you should do is attempt to run the best race possible for the conditions. They showed that they had done no preparation relative to racing the horse. A close second with the best trip you could make from that post position would have been nice. How about a ground saving trip even if you have to compromise you distance from the leader a little bit. Save ground run where the track bias tells you to run and then see what you get in the stretch.
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#4
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Don't you think you need better reason to scratch a horse, than a post position. The stewarts would have their hands full of whinners, and complainers.
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#5
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__________________
Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma |
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#6
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Two things
1. Trainers of beaten favorites often need to deflect attention to outside influences to try to distract the owners from firing them and giving the horse to Pletcher or Dutrow (when he returns from Carnivale) 2. I'll bet he wont be signing the same tune if he draws post 1 in his next race. |
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#7
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However, it's so refreshing when a trainer is a straight shooter, and takes responsibility for a decisive tactical mistake that leads to a loss. An example, with Rick Violette, who's 3-year-old filly Dream Rush lost an ALW race at 3/10 odds in late Jan. Violette took full blame for the loss, rightly saying his instructions "handcuffed" Bejarano and cost him the race. Next time out, the Violette filly broke slow, was sent, and went wire-to-wire to an impressive score in the Old Hat Stakes, leaving Dreaming of Anna badly in her wake. From a bettors standpoint, it gets pretty annoying when you constantly see jockeys and trainers blaming everyone but themselves, for tactical errors they make. |
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#8
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#9
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Now, HTF is he supposed to take advantage of the bias from there? Assuming that the trainer and jock were aware of the bias. He has ZERO chance of getting the lead and ZERO chance of getting inside. Now, what exactly was the criticism against the trainer? |
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#10
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Yeah but my god post 9 at Oaklawn Park is not anything close to being as bad as post 14-19 at the Hill in May. Horse plain and simple has had everything his way so far. Show me something in a race where you had to overcome and then we'll talk Mr. Jones.
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#11
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To really get an idea of how slow the fractions were, go take a look at Uptothesky's form in race 3. He's basically a slowpoke, coming off of a 7th place finish in a 7.5K N2L life race last out--and a 8th beaten 23 lengths in a 5K N2L life two starts back. Also, in four of his last five starts, he rated in 4th early on while going a route of ground. He won wire-to-wire setting faster fractions than the Southwest winner. Hard Spun had won all four of his prior races in wire-to-wire fashion, and absolutely had the natural speed to get a much better position early on. |
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#12
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If you watch the race again, you'll HAVE to notice that the horse breaks slowly AND takes a bad/funky step a few strides after. It takes him a bit to settle in stride. Wouldn't you think that the jock was wise to just let him settle and run on his own RATHER than pushing him to get the lead before a very short run to the turn? Throw the race out and, if you like him, give him another chance. |
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#13
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The Pletcher/Velazquez horse was the one who missed the break.
Hard Spun, from what I could see, was kept quiet in the pre-race, and it was pretty clear that the plan all along was to take him off the pace and to try and drop in. IMO, his break was consistant with a horse who was being rated from the moment he left the gate. In fact, I give the Oaklawn Park chart caller credit for picking that up. He has him breaking 6th of 9 in the field...and the comment of Hard Spun's running line starts "taken in hand at the start" |
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#14
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Okay
Let me get to a more serious issue: what I really find annoying is the lack of consistency between tracks in terms of information presentation. for example, in most cases, there's no stretch fraction for mile races OAK is an exception, however. So I have to add code to cover this for those rare cases when I want to chart a OAK race |
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