Handicapping vs Money Management

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by merasmag

i am just getting more sophisicated in my betting when it comes to exotics, but as to anything else my mantra is still a winner is better than a tear up

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

I think you need to publish a book with this strategy

it's simple

BET THE OVERLAY

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

it's simple

BET THE OVERLAY

No schit
????do you understand the risk vs reward assessment and return on investment??? exotics have greater rewards but also have greater risks...speading in the exotics reduces the risk but also lowers the ROI...
I was looking for comments on different stategies for better ROI over the long run...

Ok, guys, he's not asking HOW to pick a winner(s). He's asking what to do after he's done that. Stop telling him to bet an overlay.

I've been around here a short amount of time, but it seems like most guys around here play multi-race wagers and reduce their level of risk by covering. There's a good thread on multi-race wagering that BTW weighed in on called SA Pick 6 carryover, or something to that effect. There are some good lessons in that.

As far as money management goes, from a basic level what I would suggest is figuring out exactly what your bankroll is and exactly how much you can afford to wager when you do play. So, if you have $10,000 per year bankroll and you play 100 times a year, you can plan on having, on average $100 every day you play. This is helpful because it tells you what types of wagers you can play consistently and, realistically, have a chance of success. If one has $100 to play when he/she wagers, they are not pick 6 players most likely...more like rolling Pk 3 and Pk 4. Maybe not even that depending on the aversion to risk a player has personally.

Also, what I think you might be hinting at with money management is the notion of changing the amount bet depending on your position as you go along. For instance, some folks say if you're losing you should bet more to make up for what you lost when you eventually do win. This is suspect, but some folks subscribe to the theory that, at some point, they're "due." I say baloney, every race is a new set of circumstances, you could go on forever and keep picking a number based on handicapping and still have relatively little success. In other words, I don't think it's as analogous to flipping a coin and, over time, having heads and tails come up an equal number of times.

My latest money management strategy?? Quit when I'm ahead!! And play within my bankroll. Or at least, when I'm ahead, don't bet it all back. If anything, I've learned that betting back most or all of the amount that I'm ahead using aggressive bets usually ends up being unprofitable. For what it's worth...

I've heard BTW say before that it's one thing to be a good handicapper and another thing to be a good horseplayer. So, I know he's got "opinions" on the topic. Should be a good thread.

[hockey2315]

In reference to the bankroll comment. . . I've read that you should play 2% of your bankroll on a given race. . . That might not work for everyone though

[bugsoup]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

i'll say you gave me a good laugh with your strategy.
thats why i quit drinking.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by deltagulf

i'll say you gave me a good laugh with your strategy.
thats why i quit drinking.

Not sure if you know me well enough to know that I was kidding.

Just making sure

I just figured I'd try to relate to Mera once every few weeks, and my time had come due

Someone asked why bet a horse to place....If you pick winners over 50% of the time then betting to place is probably not worthwhile...not that many horseplayers pick winners more than 50% of the time...if your selections run first or second a decent percentage of the time then perhaps the place bet will help to protect the bank roll...imho it is all about ROI...if your ROI is better with 2 units to win versus 1 unit win/place then you should go with straight win wagers...if you ROI is better playing the exocitcs then bet them...to me the horseracing game is a fun challenge... Playing the game is fun...however determining whether you are winning or losing the game is frequently measured in terms of did you win money or lose money....

You don't have to make money to have fun at the racetrack....but it sure don't hurt...

[cmorioles]

I've written a few articles on the subject. Here are the links:

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/expectations.html

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/bottomline.html

[miraja2]

With regards to the W/P vs exotic question, I say don't have a plan.
It sounds obvious but each race is different. If you have a set betting strategy, you end up trying yo fit the races to a plan....not a good idea.
Some races are exotic races. Some are W/P races. Some are skip races. Havong a general idea is great, but make sure you don't make the mistake of trying to figure out how to fit each race into your betting strategy. Do the opposite.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I've written a few articles on the subject. Here are the links:

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/expectations.html

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/bottomline.html

Nice work!

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Someone asked why bet a horse to place....If you pick winners over 50% of the time then betting to place is probably not worthwhile...not that many horseplayers pick winners more than 50% of the time...if your selections run first or second a decent percentage of the time then perhaps the place bet will help to protect the bank roll...imho it is all about ROI...if your ROI is better with 2 units to win versus 1 unit win/place then you should go with straight win wagers...if you ROI is better playing the exocitcs then bet them...to me the horseracing game is a fun challenge... Playing the game is fun...however determining whether you are winning or losing the game is frequently measured in terms of did you win money or lose money....

You don't have to make money to have fun at the racetrack....but it sure don't hurt...

If you pick winners over 50% of the time, you are A) a liar,or B) a selective chalkeater who only plays odds on favorites.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If you pick winners over 50% of the time, you are A) a liar,or B) a selective chalkeater who only plays odds on favorites.

I know that i certainly don't pick winners anywhere near 50% of the time...and have never claimed to..