Handicapping vs Money Management

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's just all about finding the value in that race. . . Sometimes a horse will be thrown in every exacta box but not alot of win money will be on it. . . Sometimes, like when alot of barn money is bet on a horse, the exotics are way higher than the win prices. . . You also should just bet what you feel you have an edge with. If you know you like one horse to win but aren't sure about the horses to use underneath, why bet exotics and risk not capitalizing on the winner?

hockey,
Very well said. Value is the key.
Sometimes (myself included), greed gets in the way.
Bet what you feel you have the edge with.
Sometimes, it's best to not spread on the unknowns.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by merasmag

i am just getting more sophisicated in my betting when it comes to exotics, but as to anything else my mantra is still a winner is better than a tear up

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

I think you need to publish a book with this strategy

it's simple

BET THE OVERLAY

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

it's simple

BET THE OVERLAY

No schit
????do you understand the risk vs reward assessment and return on investment??? exotics have greater rewards but also have greater risks...speading in the exotics reduces the risk but also lowers the ROI...
I was looking for comments on different stategies for better ROI over the long run...

Ok, guys, he's not asking HOW to pick a winner(s). He's asking what to do after he's done that. Stop telling him to bet an overlay.

I've been around here a short amount of time, but it seems like most guys around here play multi-race wagers and reduce their level of risk by covering. There's a good thread on multi-race wagering that BTW weighed in on called SA Pick 6 carryover, or something to that effect. There are some good lessons in that.

As far as money management goes, from a basic level what I would suggest is figuring out exactly what your bankroll is and exactly how much you can afford to wager when you do play. So, if you have $10,000 per year bankroll and you play 100 times a year, you can plan on having, on average $100 every day you play. This is helpful because it tells you what types of wagers you can play consistently and, realistically, have a chance of success. If one has $100 to play when he/she wagers, they are not pick 6 players most likely...more like rolling Pk 3 and Pk 4. Maybe not even that depending on the aversion to risk a player has personally.

Also, what I think you might be hinting at with money management is the notion of changing the amount bet depending on your position as you go along. For instance, some folks say if you're losing you should bet more to make up for what you lost when you eventually do win. This is suspect, but some folks subscribe to the theory that, at some point, they're "due." I say baloney, every race is a new set of circumstances, you could go on forever and keep picking a number based on handicapping and still have relatively little success. In other words, I don't think it's as analogous to flipping a coin and, over time, having heads and tails come up an equal number of times.

My latest money management strategy?? Quit when I'm ahead!! And play within my bankroll. Or at least, when I'm ahead, don't bet it all back. If anything, I've learned that betting back most or all of the amount that I'm ahead using aggressive bets usually ends up being unprofitable. For what it's worth...

I've heard BTW say before that it's one thing to be a good handicapper and another thing to be a good horseplayer. So, I know he's got "opinions" on the topic. Should be a good thread.

[bugsoup]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'd venture to say that you may also be a fan of my betting strategy.

I take $50 to the track, and put $15 into the machine and get a betting voucher. I then spend the other $35 on beer.

Then, I bet that I am going to be completely wasted.

It's a no-lose situation, because even if you drop the other $15 on bad horses....who cares? You're already too drunk to be mad about it.

i'll say you gave me a good laugh with your strategy.
thats why i quit drinking.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by deltagulf

i'll say you gave me a good laugh with your strategy.
thats why i quit drinking.

Not sure if you know me well enough to know that I was kidding.

Just making sure

I just figured I'd try to relate to Mera once every few weeks, and my time had come due

Someone asked why bet a horse to place....If you pick winners over 50% of the time then betting to place is probably not worthwhile...not that many horseplayers pick winners more than 50% of the time...if your selections run first or second a decent percentage of the time then perhaps the place bet will help to protect the bank roll...imho it is all about ROI...if your ROI is better with 2 units to win versus 1 unit win/place then you should go with straight win wagers...if you ROI is better playing the exocitcs then bet them...to me the horseracing game is a fun challenge... Playing the game is fun...however determining whether you are winning or losing the game is frequently measured in terms of did you win money or lose money....

You don't have to make money to have fun at the racetrack....but it sure don't hurt...

[cmorioles]

I've written a few articles on the subject. Here are the links:

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/expectations.html

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/bottomline.html

[miraja2]

With regards to the W/P vs exotic question, I say don't have a plan.
It sounds obvious but each race is different. If you have a set betting strategy, you end up trying yo fit the races to a plan....not a good idea.
Some races are exotic races. Some are W/P races. Some are skip races. Havong a general idea is great, but make sure you don't make the mistake of trying to figure out how to fit each race into your betting strategy. Do the opposite.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I've written a few articles on the subject. Here are the links:

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/expectations.html

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/bottomline.html

Nice work!

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Someone asked why bet a horse to place....If you pick winners over 50% of the time then betting to place is probably not worthwhile...not that many horseplayers pick winners more than 50% of the time...if your selections run first or second a decent percentage of the time then perhaps the place bet will help to protect the bank roll...imho it is all about ROI...if your ROI is better with 2 units to win versus 1 unit win/place then you should go with straight win wagers...if you ROI is better playing the exocitcs then bet them...to me the horseracing game is a fun challenge... Playing the game is fun...however determining whether you are winning or losing the game is frequently measured in terms of did you win money or lose money....

You don't have to make money to have fun at the racetrack....but it sure don't hurt...

If you pick winners over 50% of the time, you are A) a liar,or B) a selective chalkeater who only plays odds on favorites.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If you pick winners over 50% of the time, you are A) a liar,or B) a selective chalkeater who only plays odds on favorites.

I know that i certainly don't pick winners anywhere near 50% of the time...and have never claimed to..

Originally Posted by merasmag

i am just getting more sophisicated in my betting when it comes to exotics, but as to anything else my mantra is still a winner is better than a tear up

Pretty ballsy statement. May we quote you on this?

[ceejay]

Dave,

IMO, Money management is at least 50% of the handicapping game. I always include win $ on my tickets @4-1, and depending on pools sometimes WP. I let the races and my understanding of them dictate exotics. If I have an opinion for place/show overlays I play EX/TRI's. I Often play AB/ABCD/ABCDE $18 tri and AB/ABCDE ex. I NEVER put short priced fav's in the 3-spot. If I don't have opinion for place/show overlays I might try to hook up P3/4's, P3's with <=1 fav, P4's with <=2 favs. If I can't do either multi-race or intrarace I settle for straight pools.

Hope this helps.

Originally Posted by merasmag

btw, someone with 16 posts has not yet earned the right to criticize me---unless we know u as someone else...hmmmmmm

Criticizing? Not me sister. I'm just a little envious that I didn't pen a pearl of wisdom like " a winner is better than a tear up."

P.S. Are you and Ronnie "Woo Woo" tight?