southwest stakes 2/19

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Gander

Somebody on this board said Teuflesberg didnt belong but I dont rember who.

I wasn't certain he could get a mile effectively, but I know that Pedigree Ann stated that maybe he could get a mile at Aqueduct, but she doubted at Oaklawn. Who knows...

I DO think he's a better sprinter and I think he'll be a really nice one if he's allowed to do that. I DON'T think that Teuflesberg is going to have an easy time getting 10 furlongs in the derby (if he's entered.)

[packerbacker7964]

I got the pick 3 going with the 4 and 8 in the 10th. Can we say a signer maybe? Oh BTW go to Oaklawn Live Streaming Radio at Oaklawn.com and you can listen to the live race call with Realplayer on the computer.

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

I got the pick 3 going with the 4 and 8 in the 10th. Can we say a signer maybe? Oh BTW go to Oaklawn Live Streaming Radio at Oaklawn.com and you can listen to the live race call with Realplayer on the computer.

I'm not sure about the 4 being a signer but the 8 looks like it will be.

[Sightseek]

Talk about GREAT racing luck...they scratch Teuflesburg for a bad post last week and then steal this race with a perfect shot out of the 4 hole and no one out to challenge him.

Very happy to see one of my faves of the crop win...but hope the connections realize this victory was completely circumstantial...

[Getaway]

Hard Spun is still a very nice horse but if his form today is any indication of what he can do in May, I'm gunna go out on a limb and say he is NOT the Derby winner. Every horse has a bad day, and this could have been his. Wide trip or not, if he was in top form, he should have been the winner. Last year's Derby winner overcame the 10 hole at Gulfstream, and we all know who that was. The point I am getting at is that you can't blame the wide trip for getting beat that badly. I can see if he was a little closer to the winner...but getting solidly beat by Teuflesberg??

[slotdirt]

Honestly, why would this race even remotely matter to Hard Spun's connections? It's not like there were graded stakes earnings involved here. The Rebel/Arky Derby are the real races in store for Hard Spun.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

he had a absolutely brutal trip from the opening bell breaking a little bit slow and it continued in the first turn. not to mention he also had to do something hes never done to date which is not be on the lead and you could tell he absolutely did not like it on the backstretch if you payed attention. in the end under the circumstances i dont think the horse ran a bad race at all and showed hes got some guts to him and was only beaten 3 for all of it

[Gander]

Theres always Fingerlakes and Turfway Park. Nothing wrong with those tracks.

[Danzig]

shame to see that hard spun lost-i like the horse...but they all lose eventually, don't they?
beaten three lengths total i believe, i was held up at work and missed the race. i know the post was a concern, and i know it was his first race that he wasn't on the lead. i was thinking if he was going to lose, today would be the day to go ahead and get it out of the way!
who knows what he'll turn out to be, or any of those currently 'prepping'--still kills me that every and any race involving three year olds is a derby prep, but that's life.
i still think he's a good horse, just maybe not a classic horse-definitely not a miler from the nine hole horse!!

[brianwspencer]

this is just great. this will get sanders to further her delusional thinking with this horse. now that he's won a two-turn race, they will expect him to continue doing so.

sadly, they will keep running this horse into the ground, and he doesn't belong with the top 3yo runners at route distances at all.

the race today fell in his lap because all the circumstances went his way. now they'll get some confidence in him and keep throwing him in races expecting him to perform like this again.

i'm not the one who said he didn't belong in here.

but i will be the one to say Tueflesburg doesn't belong on the TC trail at all, and it will show up in a big way from here out like it has in every other route race of his career until today when everybody left him alone and inherited the win.

good thing, is hopefully he'll be overbet next out, and he'll have a snowball's chance in hell at repeating this effort around two turns.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

this is just great. this will get sanders to further her delusional thinking with this horse. now that he's won a two-turn race, they will expect him to continue doing so.

sadly, they will keep running this horse into the ground, and he doesn't belong with the top 3yo runners at route distances at all.

the race today fell in his lap because all the circumstances went his way. now they'll get some confidence in him and keep throwing him in races expecting him to perform like this again.

i'm not the one who said he didn't belong in here.

but i will be the one to say Tueflesburg doesn't belong on the TC trail at all, and it will show up in a big way from here out like it has in every other route race of his career until today when everybody left him alone and inherited the win.

good thing, is hopefully he'll be overbet next out, and he'll have a snowball's chance in hell at repeating this effort around two turns.

Why don't you tell us how you really feel, Brian? LMAO

While I don't feel that Teuflesberg is a true 10 furlong horse, he's definitely a NICE colt and don't be surprised to see him winning a lot more this year. He moves better than ANY 3-year old I've seen run yet this year. I absolutely adore this horse and I think there are far worse contenders on the derby trail right now. If he belonged to me, I would keep running him in sprints, because I think that's where he does best. The blinkers being off of him had a huge effect today as well as he seemed more relaxed... just my take.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964

Oh BTW go to Oaklawn Live Streaming Radio at Oaklawn.com and you can listen to the live race call with Realplayer on the computer.

Or, the next time you want to watch an Oaklawn race from your computer, you can go to ESPN.com's horse racing section and click on the live racing link to watch it for free... Or open an account with an online wagering site!

[slotdirt]

I say it again:

so what if Hard Spun had a below par performance in a race like the Southwest? It's not a graded event, and Hard Spun needs graded earnings. I'd be shocked if he isn't in the money at least in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say it again:

so what if Hard Spun had a below par performance in a race like the Southwest? It's not a graded event, and Hard Spun needs graded earnings. I'd be shocked if he isn't in the money at least in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.

I don't know where Steve Asmussen's going with Curlin, but if he shows up in Arkansas, Hard Spun will have his hands full in my opinion.

NT

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say it again:

so what if Hard Spun had a below par performance in a race like the Southwest? It's not a graded event, and Hard Spun needs graded earnings. I'd be shocked if he isn't in the money at least in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.

IF he moves forward off of the race yesterday, yeah I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he hit the board in the Rebel or the Arkansas Derby.

[slotdirt]

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

[slotdirt]

P.s. It's so hard to tell what any connection is looking for from a particular race. It didn't even look like Pino was trying, to be honest.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

amazing how many horses get dismissed after a loss, and amazing how few make it to the derby without a loss!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

I disagree. If this were any other race I certainly think the trip would not even be discussed because it was routine for a horse with the nine hole. We all just see races differently. I just did not see a miserable trip for Hard Spun. Sure the first turn was less than ideal but I thought Pino guided him into a reasonable position without asking him for much on the first turn. From my viewpoint, the second half of the first turn Hard Spun was not more than 2-3 wide. Going up the backstretch he stayed wide but there really was not an option and beside that is not where you lose ground on the straight. Moving into the second turn he looked to be 3-4 wide and he started to gain ground on the leader until he just flattened out. If you think its because Pino wasn't trying thats up to you. I don't think its what the trainer wanted to see, namely to be passed in the stretch by Officer Rocket and Forty Grams.

Of course no one has to give up on a horse after one race, and he could come back to run a better race next time.

My only point is that according to the numbers that I use, his race in the Southwest was only slightly worse than his first route. The increase in difficulty of the trip and the higher level of competition cost him a bit. In my view the race he ran yesterday fairly accurately reflects the current level of talent for this horse.
.

[Gander]

There was nothing special about that field and any horse can get a mile against soft competition over a speed favoring surface. I'd be surprised if any of those horses even makes the Derby. Toy race.