FG 4

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

BTW I read sometime back where you posted that Pat Day was NOT a great rider! With that said, no need to apologize for insulting me.

BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.

Stud: From a previous post where you listed the turf rail placements at your track I assume your "meet" is Calder. I certainly agree if you do not have a winning ticket in your "first" $24 the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Your tenets make sense and all 'cappers have them. I select a day to play, and play regardless of conviction. In fact probably playing FG Tuesday which would be the first Tuesday play since election day last year. Among my favorite tenets would be to look for a solid favorite to single! Perhaps some 70 percent of races are decided at the time of entry and the multi-race player can capitalize here. Also a change in the turf rail can make a horse highly unlikely even if they look very solid on paper. I also will spread or single in any leg.
Lastly I as well have a thick skin and do not rue tough beats very long. BBB

You seem to have a bit of interest, so I'll respond and give you a few insights but it'll be my last response to you as your tone is too condescending, your insults are too veiled and your compliments are far too backhanded for my taste.

1. Turf Rail Placement. I've heard people give anecdotal opinions for years and years, generally that the further out the rail, the kinder to speed. It's overrated at the least, and plain wrong, at least on 7/8 courses for non-chute 2-turn races based on my 4-year review. The further out the rail, the closer to the first turn and - across all classes - the faster the pace. There is a very, very modest correlation to rail placement and speed kindness for chute and sprint races but it's so small I think it's meaningless to be honest. Maybe FG or CD is different from where I play, but I'd be surprised.

2. Diminishing Returns after the "first" $24. Wrong imo. It depends on the way the races set up. If you 'shoehorn' yourself like this and never adapt to take advantage of how you perceive the races set up, good luck to you, as I think you will surely need it.

3. If you choose to play a p-4 on a certain day and do so regardless of conviction using just a short ticket strategy, good luck. By any definition of the phrase, you are playing on the most recreational basis possible, That's ok, but you cannot expect to be taken seriously.

4. Don't read too much into my fondness of short tickets. I played 125 days of Calder last year. Two p-4's a day. I played 80 of them. Of the 80 I played, 25 were short tickets.

5. I suppose I'm happy for you and "everyone" else at your other "forum" who all had that $25 winner. All I can say with conviction is that if everyone at Derby Trail had the same horse, it would not have paid $25.

Good luck.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree with your last post ( probably all of it ) but specifically about the ticket sizes. I wasn't trying to say you can never hit Pick-4s with small tickets, and obviously like you I try to play the one or two offered at whatever track I'm playing, so certainly I sometimes play in the $24-$36 range ( and have even miraculously hit a few of these ). I was just trying to say that LIMITING yourself to that size can't work over time. I guess it feels like we agree.

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

I believe that that is how Steve explained it to me at Gulfstream as well. It makes sense, when the rail is at 0 feet, the turns are tighter and your speed is going to hang on better. When it is out further, your turns are less tight and will give a more fair chance to closers and mid-pack runners.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Grits

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

Thanks, Grits.

Someone told me about his article and I'll try to read it sometime. I'd be surprised a bit I guess, but not overly so if what you mentioned is the case. To be honest, I love the racing at Gulfstream but not wagering there. I bet $10-$25 a race at Gulf 2-3 days a week. Hopefully, my money at Gulf is slightly less "Dead" than average, so I'm donating $1-$2 a race. I can live with that as a fair price for seeing good racing in great weather. In any event, I'm far from being any kind of expert at Gulfstream.

A couple things...

Most important, there is a world of difference between grass racing on a 1-mile course vs a 7/8 with a chute. As far as rail placement on a 1-mile course, I agree wider turns hurt speed but I also believe the rail-out shorter run to the first turn hurts off-pace horses as well trip-wise. Personally, I think in these shorter 2-turn races, speed plays more poorly in rail-out races due to the increased pace that occurs as jockeys try to get over before the turn comes up. To me, intuitively, this all ads up to trip as a bigger factor in shorter 2-turn grace races, but that's true anyways, imo.

On a 7/8 course, the dynamic of greater value is post in chute races as well as run to the first turn combined with running style. I looked at several hundred Calder turf races over four years and found very few meaningful results based solely on rail placement. Here's a few things. My guess is that other 7/8 courses with chutes would share the same results but I'm not sure:
1. Inside post is incredibly important in chute races, more so with rail-out.
2. Rail out is good for speed at 5F. But it's a small sample.
3. Rail out is bad for speed at 7.5F (shortest 2-turn distance)

But none of this is very surprising since these are the prevailing trends at these distances.

F = Front = Within 1 length of lead at the two main points of call
P = Press = Within from 1.25 to 5 lengths at both points
C = Close = Other

Here are the overall win %s by running style/distance:
Sprint: F= 38% P= 48% C= 14%
Chute: F= 17% P= 41% C= 42%
7.5 F (Straight): F= 12% P= 35% C= 53%

This is all limited-use information aside from having some sense of what kind of running style and post position benefits horses at different distances on a 7/8 track. But when you play a track with few shippers, I think it's very useful, especially when horses change distances and posts.

As always, trip and pace are the biggest factors when I look at betting any grass race. Rail placement is way down on my list.

Good luck.

Thank you so much for elaborating more, STS. A great post.

All things equal, when the turf rail is out the pace is slower! Horses run slower on turns. The slower the pace, the better chance speed has of holding.

Conversely, when the race is on the hedge the starting gate is moved up the stretch. The pace is faster (horses run faster on straights) and favors closers. BBB