My Derby Trend.....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me further myself in this sillyness......

Here are how all horses that fit the following profile have run in the Kentucky Derby, over the last four years.

Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

So, last three years, 6-3-2-0 record. Last four winners all fit. Not bad. No one fits it this year anyway though.

Hard Spun fits your profile.
I don't think it's the craziest trend, based on what has been successful long-term in getting a horse ready for the Derby (a solid base at two, obvious brilliance, etc.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hard Spun fits your profile.

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

the delaware race... yes. was thinking of the penna nursery

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Penn Nursery wouldn't have met on Beyer figures though.

If anyone has the '03 Derby Past Performances, I'd be curious to know if Funny Cide was the only horse in the race who fit.

[JJP]

IMO, the single biggest factor(s) in handicapping the Derby winner is 1)find the key prep, 2) determine who was the best horse in that race, adjusting for pace, ground loss and/or bias.

Many times it isn't the winner (Monarchos in the Wood, Real Quiet in the SA Derby, Silver Charm in the SA Derby, Unbridled in the Blue Grass, possibly Giacomo in the SA Derby that speed ran 1-2-3 around the track) of that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.