Sun King

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok andy ... well i guess i have alot of learning to do then, because the race i saw was..... early on he was well off the pace and then moved up while i guess i can agree he might have ran harder, for a horse of his caliber, was that trip really considered bad ? i think he got alot worst trip in the donn, he checked badly and was all bottled up in the stretch.

It was no coincidence that there were six horses near the pace and the five other than Invasor wound up the last five to cross the finish line. The 2nd through 4th place finishers were 3rd to last, last, and 2nd to last early. When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It was no coincidence that there were six horses near the pace and the five other than Invasor would up the last five to cross the finish line. The 2nd through 4th place finishers were 3rd to last, last, and 2nd to last early. When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

Also may be worth noticing that of the off the pace horses in that race I can't name one who came back to run well. We Can Seek got handled easily by Wanderin Boy in the Brooklyn, Sun King lost the Woodward to a horse he beat handily the time before, West Virginia subsequently lost NY bred races to Naughty New Yorker and Organizer.

Sometimes the trip can be looked at through multiple lenses.

NT

[ELA]

Great thread. Rather than give my opinion about this horse getting what I think was a bad trip, good trip, etc. -- I'd like to add some general points of view. I am not a professional gambler by any means, but like anyone, I look to get any edge I can. I tend to watch a ton of replays, over and over again. Each time I watch, I might look for something I wasn't looking for the previous time.

On a related note, I spend the meet up at Saratoga, and I've seen some gamblers, professionals, players (whatever you want to call them) -- guys who I think are pretty sharp, watching replays constantly. Often, they watch them over and over again.

Anyway, I think trip handicapping is one ingredient in the main dish. It's not the recipe that really matters -- it's the "personal flair" the chef adds to the dish.

Thanks again for the great thread.

Eric

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

When a horse like We Can Seek finishes ahead of Premium Tap you know there was a hot pace that compromised anyone on or near the lead.

Exactly...

And an understanding of pace was also very key in evaluating Invasor's Donn Handicap trip. Had he been taken back, and got jammed up inside like he did, in a real slow paced raced, it would have been nearly impossible for him to win...and he would have had a monster bad trip.

However, the Donn was run through VERY rapid early fractions, which played to Invasor's advantage, as he was rating kindly off that hot pace. And the final three furlongs of the race was run in comically slow time for the Grade 1 older male level---due in part to the strong early pace.

Basically, Invasor's trip in the Donn was perfect for six furlongs, and though he encountered very legit trouble when the race was falling apart in front of him, the final three furlongs of the race was run so slow, that he needed only get running room in order to win comfortably.

If Invasor had been able to skate through the rail unmolested---he would have won by a much larger margin for sure....but that would have been what is reffered to as "a trip of a lifetime" ---because, not only would the trip itself be fantastic, but all the circumstances of the race went in the horses favor to boot.

Think of the trip Street Sense had in the BC Juvie, which led to his 10 length margin of victory. He saved all the ground on a very live rail, while rating in 13th place, behind absurdly fast fractions. He somehow managed to skate through a collapsing race, while saving every inch of ground on the inside. That is the textbook trip of a lifetime.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Exactly...

And an understanding of pace was also very key in evaluating Invasor's Donn Handicap trip. Had he been taken back, and got jammed up inside like he did, in a real slow paced raced, it would have been nearly impossible for him to win...and he would have had a monster bad trip.

However, the Donn was run through VERY rapid early fractions, which played to Invasor's advantage, as he was rating kindly off that hot pace. And the final three furlongs of the race was run in comically slow time for the Grade 1 older male level---due in part to the strong early pace.

Basically, Invasor's trip in the Donn was perfect for six furlongs, and though he encountered very legit trouble when the race was falling apart in front of him, the final three furlongs of the race was run so slow, that he needed only get running room in order to win comfortably.

If Invasor had been able to skate through the rail unmolested---he would have won by a much larger margin for sure....but that would have been what is reffered to as "a trip of a lifetime" ---because, not only would the trip itself be fantastic, but all the circumstances of the race went in the horses favor to boot.

Think of the trip Street Sense had in the BC Juvie, which led to his 10 length margin of victory. He saved all the ground on a very live rail, while rating in 13th place, behind absurdly fast fractions. He somehow managed to skate through a collapsing race, while saving every inch of ground on the inside. That is the textbook trip of a lifetime.

I completely thought early he was getting a dream setup and would blow the field away which had me very confused as to why Jara had him on the rail where he could get trapped. With that setup he could have gone wide and crushed that field. Where I disagree is that the momentum lost not only from clipping heels but also prior to that when the tiring speed was falling back into his lap and he had to slow down was way more significant than it is being given credit for. The important thing though is he won. There are plenty of horses that have some problems in a race and fold up like a tent. The very good ones still win even when they have every reason to lose.