Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?

[estreetposse]

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case


-bt-

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case


-bt-

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

[lemoncrush]

I think the worst bet right now is anyone in the Oaks.
Outside of Dreaming of Anna (who may not even go to the Oaks) there doesn't seem to be any standouts at all.
The fact that neither Octave or Cotton Blossom are showing up in the Davona Dale may be proof that they are as mediocre as they looked last fall.
The fillies out west are all jumbled together, too.
It's just a mess trying to figure out this division.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

Barbaro wasn't either! He wanted nothing to do with them...

[estreetposse]

if i had to make a bet:

Circular Quay: 20-1, if this horse makes it to the Derby i don't think there is a chance that he will have this high of odds. The public will not let those connections be that high of a price (unless he throws in some clunkers between now and may)

Forfathers: 80-1, for sh!ts an giggles


-bt-

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

That's not necessarily true, Randall. If you went into the Derby with those 3 horses at those odds, you would probably have been able to construct a bet on each of the other horses that would have guaranteed you a win no matter which horse won.

That's actually close to my approach to the Derby. I try to pick up futures along the way that will allow me an arbitrage come Derby Day.

Too bad the offshore scene has changed so dramatically from a year ago.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar

Of course,it is all the money for Tiago and Spankey.If Liquidity goes off 50-1, or better,then I will take some of that.Horses that try that hard, can improve (to pss on your party.)

[Gander]

I just looked and there is $222K bet in the pool.

"All others" is 5/2. I like that bet but thats about as low as it can go to seriously think about dropping a wager on it in my opinion. I suspect it will go off at 2/1.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

I just looked and there is $222K bet in the pool.

"All others" is 5/2. I like that bet but thats about as low as it can go to seriously think about dropping a wager on it in my opinion. I suspect it will go off at 2/1.

Is everyone with late money waiting until tomorrow? Circular Quay is still 17/1 and Lawrence the Roman 22/1 while Notional is 40/1 and Zanjero 76/1.